UTEP vs Utah State Pick & Prediction – 8/30/25
Updated October 22, 2026
Updated October 22, 2026
The UTEP Miners and Utah State Aggies opened their 2025 college football seasons in Logan on August 30. Both teams were coming off disappointing campaigns, but Utah State entered the matchup with renewed optimism under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall.
Our original UTEP vs Utah State prediction backed the Aggies to cover the 5.5-point spread at home. Utah State went on to win 28–16, getting its season off to a positive start and rewarding bettors who took the home favorite.
Here's a look at the original odds, the factors behind our pick, and how the game unfolded.
Original prediction | Details |
|---|---|
Pick | Utah State -5.5 |
Confidence | 3/5 |
Projected score | Utah State 31, UTEP 20 |
Utah State win probability | 75% |
Final score | Utah State 28, UTEP 16 |
Betting result | Win |
Utah State was our preferred side heading into this Week 1 matchup. The Aggies had an experienced quarterback in Bryson Barnes, a new head coach with a strong résumé, and home-field advantage against a UTEP team that struggled throughout 2024.
The expectation was that Utah State would show immediate improvement under Mendenhall and win by at least a touchdown.
The Aggies ultimately covered the spread with a 12-point victory.
For upcoming games and current selections, see our college football picks and predictions.
Detail | Information |
|---|---|
Matchup | UTEP Miners at Utah State Aggies |
Date | Saturday, August 30, 2025 |
Kickoff | 7:30 PM ET |
Venue | Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium |
Location | Logan, Utah |
TV | CBS Sports Network |
Final score | Utah State 28, UTEP 16 |
Utah State entered the season opener as a 5.5-point favorite, with the moneyline suggesting a clear advantage for the Aggies.
Betting market | Original odds |
|---|---|
Spread | Utah State -5.5 |
Utah State moneyline | -200 |
UTEP moneyline | +170 |
Over/Under | 60.5 |
These are the historical odds published in our original August 2025 preview. They are provided for reference and are no longer available.
The spread reflected the expectation that Utah State would be the stronger team, although neither program had established much consistency the previous season.
The total of 60.5 suggested a relatively high-scoring contest. Both teams had struggled defensively in 2024, and there were questions about how quickly they could improve.
Utah State covered the spread, but the game finished well below the posted total, with just 44 combined points.
Utah State entered 2025 following a 4–8 season, with the arrival of Bronco Mendenhall providing a fresh start.
Mendenhall had previously coached at BYU, Virginia, and New Mexico, bringing considerable experience to a program looking for greater stability.
His first challenge was to establish a more competitive team after a difficult 2024 campaign.
The Aggies had an advantage at quarterback with Bryson Barnes returning for another season.
Barnes had previously played at Utah before transferring to Utah State. In 2024, he threw 12 touchdown passes and six interceptions, gaining valuable experience in the Aggies' offense.
His mobility also gave Utah State another dimension offensively.
Against UTEP, the Aggies had an opportunity to establish their running game, create manageable situations for Barnes, and put pressure on a Miners defense that had struggled the previous season.
The home opener was an important opportunity to build confidence in Mendenhall's first game.
UTEP entered the matchup following a 3–9 campaign in Scotty Walden's first season as head coach.
The Miners were hoping to show progress in Year 2, but their opening schedule presented some difficult challenges.
After visiting Utah State, UTEP still had nonconference games against UT Martin and Texas. A road victory against the Aggies would have provided a significant early boost.
Quarterback was one of the biggest questions heading into the season.
Skyler Locklear had thrown for 1,583 yards, 10 touchdowns, and six interceptions in 2024, but former highly rated recruit Malachi Nelson was competing for the starting job.
That competition created some uncertainty around the offense.
UTEP needed more consistent quarterback play and better execution to improve on its previous season.
Facing a Utah State team with a new coaching staff and an experienced starting quarterback made this a challenging opening assignment.
The coaching change was a major reason to favor Utah State.
Mendenhall had experience rebuilding programs and establishing competitive teams, and his arrival gave the Aggies reason to expect improvement.
A new coach can introduce uncertainty, particularly in the first game, but Utah State appeared well positioned to benefit from the change.
Facing a UTEP team that had won just three games in 2024 offered a manageable opening test.
Barnes entered the matchup with more experience in Utah State's offense than UTEP had at the quarterback position.
His ability to contribute as both a passer and runner provided additional flexibility.
UTEP's quarterback competition, meanwhile, left questions about how effectively the Miners would execute against FBS opposition.
That difference was an important part of the original handicap.
Utah State also benefited from playing in Logan.
The Aggies were beginning a new era under Mendenhall, and a home opener offered an opportunity to establish momentum.
UTEP faced a difficult road trip while attempting to improve on a disappointing 2024 season.
With the spread sitting at 5.5 points, Utah State needed to win by less than a touchdown to cover.
Our projection had the Aggies winning by 11.
These programs had met only once before the 2025 season opener.
Utah State defeated UTEP 21–6 in the 2014 New Mexico Bowl.
That game had little direct relevance to the 2025 matchup, given the changes in personnel and coaching staffs over the intervening years.
However, it meant Utah State entered the contest with a 1–0 record against the Miners.
The Aggies extended that advantage with their victory in Logan.
Our original model favored Utah State to win by double digits.
Projection | Original estimate |
|---|---|
Utah State points | 31 |
UTEP points | 20 |
Projected margin | Utah State by 11 |
Utah State win probability | 75% |
UTEP win probability | 25% |
The projected score reflected an expectation that Utah State would be more effective offensively and take advantage of UTEP's uncertainty entering the season.
The actual result was somewhat lower scoring, but the projected margin was close.
Utah State won by 12 points, compared with the model's 11-point projection.
For upcoming matchups, our college football matchup pages provide additional team comparisons and game information.
Utah State delivered a convincing victory in its first game under Mendenhall.
The Aggies overcame an early UTEP touchdown and built a 20–10 halftime lead before extending their advantage in the third quarter.
Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UTEP | 7 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 16 |
Utah State | 10 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
UTEP briefly moved ahead in the first quarter when Malachi Nelson connected with Kenny Odom for a 34-yard touchdown.
Utah State responded with one of the game's biggest plays, a 58-yard touchdown run by Miles Davis.
The Aggies added 10 points in the second quarter, including a 52-yard touchdown pass from Barnes to Broc Lane.
Barnes then scored on a 12-yard run in the third quarter. A successful two-point conversion pushed Utah State's lead to 28–10.
UTEP added a fourth-quarter touchdown but could not close the gap further.
Utah State's advantage came primarily through explosive offensive plays and its ability to protect the football.
The Aggies finished with 360 total yards, compared with 284 for UTEP.
Statistic | UTEP | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
Total yards | 284 | 360 |
Passing yards | 181 | 233 |
Rushing yards | 103 | 127 |
First downs | 19 | 18 |
Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
Third-down conversions | 4/15 | 2/12 |
Utah State was more productive overall, although neither offense was particularly efficient on third down.
The difference was the Aggies' ability to generate big plays.
Davis' 58-yard touchdown run and Lane's 52-yard touchdown reception helped Utah State establish a lead that UTEP could not overcome.
Barnes completed 19 of 28 passes for 233 yards and a touchdown without throwing an interception. He also added a rushing touchdown.
Davis finished with 88 rushing yards and 61 receiving yards.
For UTEP, Nelson completed 22 of 34 passes for 178 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Odom caught nine passes for 97 yards and a touchdown.
The Miners struggled to sustain drives, converting only four of their 15 third-down opportunities.
UTEP had some productive moments, but Utah State made better use of its scoring opportunities.
The original recommendation was Utah State -5.5.
With a 28–16 victory, the Aggies covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Betting market | Original line | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
Utah State spread | -5.5 | Win |
Utah State moneyline | -200 | Win |
UTEP moneyline | +170 | Loss |
Over/Under | 60.5 | Under |
The original spread selection won, and the model's projected margin was within one point of the actual result.
The under also finished comfortably, with the teams combining for 44 points against a total of 60.5.
Only Utah State -5.5 was the published ATS.io recommendation. The other outcomes are included as historical betting results.
The season opener demonstrated the importance of evaluating coaching changes, quarterback experience, and offensive consistency.
Utah State entered the matchup with several advantages, even though its 2024 record offered little reason for confidence on its own.
Mendenhall's arrival created the possibility of improvement, while Barnes provided experience at quarterback.
UTEP faced more uncertainty offensively, and that showed in its inability to sustain drives.
The final result also illustrated why an accurate assessment of the likely winner does not necessarily translate into an accurate scoring total.
Utah State won by almost exactly the projected margin, but the game produced fewer points than expected.
When evaluating similar matchups, the spread and total deserve separate analysis.
For more upcoming selections, see our best college football bets today.
Utah State defeated UTEP 28–16 in Logan, Utah, in the season opener for both teams.
Our original pick was Utah State -5.5 with a confidence rating of 3/5. The Aggies covered the spread with a 12-point victory.
Utah State was favored by 5.5 points in the original preview. The moneyline listed Utah State at -200 and UTEP at +170, with a total of 60.5.
Yes. Utah State won 28–16, covering the original 5.5-point spread.
The under won. The teams combined for 44 points, well below the original total of 60.5.
Bryson Barnes started for Utah State. He threw for 233 yards and a touchdown and added a rushing touchdown in the victory.
→ Our Take: Utah State was the right side in this Week 1 matchup. The Aggies had the more experienced quarterback, a favorable home opener, and reason to expect improvement under Bronco Mendenhall. They capitalized on those advantages with several explosive plays and a turnover-free performance. The 28–16 victory covered the original -5.5 spread and gave Utah State a successful start to the 2025 season.
Updated October 22, 2026
