St Louis Blues vs Ottawa Senators Prediction - October 13, 2026

Prediction

• ●- Recommended Position: Ottawa Senators moneyline
• ●- Model Probability: 54.5%
• ●- Market Probability: 46.9%
• ●- Model Edge: 7.6%
• ●- Entry Threshold: +100
• ●- Model Confidence Based on Model Edge: 80/100
• ●- Why the Market Is Wrong: Ottawa owns the stronger early-season profile in the key areas that matter most for a home moneyline position: better goal differential, better scoring rate, better defensive numbers, and a clear edge in net based on the projected starters. The market is still pricing St. Louis as the side with a slight edge, but Ottawa’s home ice, superior possession indicators, and sharper goaltending outlook make the Senators the more likely winner.

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: Ottawa Senators 4, St Louis Blues 3
• ●Projected Total: 7.0

Why This Position Stands Out

Ottawa has opened the season with the more convincing two-way profile. The Senators are scoring 3.00 goals per game while allowing only 2.00, and they also hold the better shot and faceoff numbers. St. Louis is producing 2.80 goals per game and allowing 3.20, which is a tougher mix on the road against a home team that has already looked organized in all three zones. That gap matters because this market is still shorting Ottawa at home despite the Senators’ stronger early results. The goaltending setup also leans Ottawa. Linus Ullmark’s season line has been excellent, while the St. Louis starter on the projected lineup has allowed far more goals through his first two appearances. In a game where the full-game line is close, the better puck-stopping outlook can swing the side more than the public may expect. Ottawa’s stronger penalty kill and faceoff edge add support to the home side, especially if special teams decide a one-goal game.