Introduction
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction in Premier League matchday action at St James' Park, and our model expects Newcastle United to win 2-1. Newcastle sit 11th with 8 points, but their 7.76 xG and 4.0 shots on target a match still edge Villa's 6.83 xG and 3.2.
Prediction
- ●Recommended Position: Newcastle United (133, Kalshi)
- ●Model Probability: 47.3%
- ●Market Probability: 42.9%
- ●Model Edge: +4.4 pp
- ●Entry Threshold: +113
- ●Model Confidence: 74/100
Model Projection
Projected Score: Newcastle United 2-1 Aston Villa
Projected Total: 3.0 goals
Why This Position Stands Out
Our edge is 4.4 points, and +113 is the worst entry we'd take. Newcastle are creating 4.0 shots on target a match, while Villa are allowing 2.02 xGA and scoring just 1.0. The risk is Newcastle's own -3.24 xG differential, but Villa's weaker defensive base should regress first.
Matchup Overview
Across six league matches, Newcastle are 2-2-2 and Villa are 1-2-3. Newcastle's 10 goals beat 7.76 xG by 2.24, while Villa's 6 goals sit on 6.83 xG and their 11 conceded track above 12.14 xGA. Newcastle also lead in shots on target, 4.0 to 3.2, with a better net xG profile.
