NBA Northwest Division Futures: Who Will Win the Northwest Division?
Updated October 21, 2026
Updated October 21, 2026
The NBA Northwest Division has one of the league's strongest collections of talent. Oklahoma City, Denver, and Minnesota have established themselves as Western Conference contenders, while Portland hopes its revamped backcourt can accelerate its rise. Utah is taking a different approach, building around a promising young core. With four teams coming off playoff appearances and several significant offseason moves reshaping the competition, the Northwest will feature plenty of can't-miss basketball this year.
Coming off a league-best 64-18 season, the Thunder return Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren.
Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray lead an offense that ranked first in offensive rating last season, but Denver must improve defensively.
Anthony Edwards has a new backcourt partner in LaMelo Ball, giving Minnesota greater offensive creativity than it had last year.
The addition of Ja Morant and return of Damian Lillard give Portland considerable offensive upside alongside Deni Avdija.
Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and rookie Darryn Peterson provide an intriguing foundation, but Utah remains a developing team.
Coming off a league-best 64-18 season, the Thunder return Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren.
Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray lead an offense that ranked first in offensive rating last season, but Denver must improve defensively.
Anthony Edwards has a new backcourt partner in LaMelo Ball, giving Minnesota greater offensive creativity than it had last year.
The addition of Ja Morant and return of Damian Lillard give Portland considerable offensive upside alongside Deni Avdija.
Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and rookie Darryn Peterson provide an intriguing foundation, but Utah remains a developing team.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are my prediction to win the 2026-27 NBA Northwest Division championship. Oklahoma City finished last season with an NBA-best +11.1 net rating, substantially ahead of Denver (+5.2) and Minnesota (+3.1). That statistical advantage is the mark of a team capable of consistently outperforming opponents on both ends of the court. The Thunder also finished first in defensive rating, a foundation that should translate into another strong regular season.
Denver is the most credible challenger to OKC. Jokić remains one of basketball's most impactful offensive players, and the Nuggets' league-leading 122.6 offensive rating last season demonstrates their exceptional scoring efficiency. However, Denver ranked just 21st defensively, leaving less margin for error than Oklahoma City's more balanced approach. Minnesota has the talent to narrow the gap, particularly if Ball and Edwards form an effective partnership, but its significant roster changes introduce additional uncertainty.
Oklahoma City's primary concern is replacing several important rotation players, particularly Dort's perimeter defense and the shooting supplied by Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Nevertheless, the combination of Gilgeous-Alexander's elite scoring efficiency, Holmgren's rim protection, and a healthier Williams gives the Thunder the strongest overall foundation. Oklahoma City is the most likely division winner, with Denver the strongest alternative and Minnesota offering greater upside if its new roster clicks.
OKC's Defense
The departures of Dort, Joe and Wiggins place greater responsibility on Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, and Jared McCain to maintain the Thunder's elite defensive performance.
Minnesota's Changes
Ball's arrival could unlock another level of scoring efficiency for Edwards, but losing Randle and Reid changes the team's frontcourt construction and places additional pressure on Rudy Gobert.
Denver On Defense
The Nuggets had the NBA's best offense but ranked 21st defensively last season. Improving that disparity could significantly change their ability to challenge Oklahoma City.
Blazing a New Trail
Morant's arrival, Lillard's return from an Achilles injury, and a new head coach in Micah Nori create substantial uncertainty about the Trail Blazers' potential regular-season improvement.
Utah's Rebuild
Peterson's rookie season and the integration of Jackson alongside Markkanen could make the Jazz more competitive. However, their commitment to long-term development may limit their ability to keep pace.
