NBA Pacific Division Futures: Who Will Win the Pacific Division?
Updated October 21, 2026
Updated October 21, 2026
The Pacific Division has seen significant changes across all five franchises. The Los Angeles Lakers are beginning a new chapter built around Luka Dončić, while the Phoenix Suns hope to build on last season's improvement. The Golden State Warriors are navigating an aging core and important injury concerns, the Los Angeles Clippers have reshaped their roster, and the Sacramento Kings are searching for a new direction. These contrasting situations make the Pacific Division an intriguing futures market.
Coming off a 53-win division championship, the Lakers will rely on Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, and newly acquired Walker Kessler.
Devin Booker leads a team that won 45 games last season, with Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, and newcomer Miles Bridges join him.
Stephen Curry remains the franchise cornerstone, but Jimmy Butler's knee injury complicates the team's outlook.
The departures of Kawhi Leonard and other veterans have created a new-look roster featuring Darius Garland, Brandon Ingram, and Keaton Wagler.
After finishing 22–60, Sacramento is incorporating rookie Darius Acuff Jr. while facing questions about their long-term future.
Coming off a 53-win division championship, the Lakers will rely on Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, and newly acquired Walker Kessler.
Devin Booker leads a team that won 45 games last season, with Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, and newcomer Miles Bridges join him.
Stephen Curry remains the franchise cornerstone, but Jimmy Butler's knee injury complicates the team's outlook.
The departures of Kawhi Leonard and other veterans have created a new-look roster featuring Darius Garland, Brandon Ingram, and Keaton Wagler.
After finishing 22–60, Sacramento is incorporating rookie Darius Acuff Jr. while facing questions about their long-term future.
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers to win the Pacific Division.
The Lakers remain the strongest overall selection, primarily because of their offensive ceiling with Dončić and Reaves. Los Angeles finished ninth in offensive rating last season at 118.2 points per 100 possessions, and Dončić remains one of the league's most effective offensive creators. Adding Kessler should improve the team's interior defense and rebounding, potentially addressing weaknesses that contributed to a 19th-ranked defensive rating of 116.4 last season.
Phoenix is the most credible threat to the Lakers. Interestingly, the Lakers' 2025–26 net rating of +1.8 was only slightly better than the Suns' +1.5, despite Los Angeles finishing eight games ahead in the standings. Phoenix also ranked 10th in defensive rating at 113.9, significantly better than the Lakers. With Booker providing reliable offensive creation and Brooks anchoring an aggressive defensive identity, the Suns have a realistic opportunity to narrow the standings gap, particularly if the Lakers struggle to replace James' contributions.
Golden State possesses enough talent to challenge if Curry stays healthy and Butler returns effectively, but the Warriors' 37–45 finish last season highlights the risk involved. The Clippers face considerable uncertainty following their roster overhaul, while Sacramento appears unlikely to compete for the division crown. Ultimately, the Lakers' superior offensive foundation and potential defensive improvement give them the clearest path to another Pacific Division title, although Phoenix could provide better futures value depending on market pricing.
Lakers Post-LeBron
Dončić and Reaves must sustain the offense without James, while Kessler's rim protection could determine whether Los Angeles becomes a more balanced team.
Phoenix's Defense
The Suns' improved defense under Jordan Ott gives them a different route to winning the division than the Lakers' offense-driven approach.
GSW's Priorities
Curry's age, Butler's rehabilitation, and Porziņģis' availability could make the Warriors more focused on preserving health than maximizing regular-season victories.
New-Look Clippers
Replacing Leonard with a group featuring Ingram, Garland, and Wagler creates substantial uncertainty about how quickly the team can develop cohesion.
Rebuilding Kings
The Kings' rebuilding direction and possible decisions involving Sabonis and LaVine could significantly alter their competitiveness against division opponents.
