NBA Southwest Division Futures: Who Will Win the Southwest Division?
Updated October 21, 2026
Updated October 21, 2026
The NBA Southwest Division features a clear separation between established contenders and teams attempting to climb the Western Conference standings. The San Antonio Spurs are coming off an NBA Finals appearance, while the Houston Rockets are looking to build on consecutive 52-win seasons. Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, and New Orleans Pelicans bring varying degrees of young talent, roster changes, and uncertainty. With several stars and contrasting playing styles, the Southwest Division futures market gives us an interesting opportunity to look for value.
Victor Wembanyama leads last season's runners-up, along with De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper.
Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün, and Amen Thompson anchor a physical, defensively capable team looking to challenge San Antonio.
Reigning Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg and a returning Kyrie Irving give Dallas significant upside, although the team must improve.
Memphis enters a rebuilding phase after moving on from Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., led by Cameron Boozer.
Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, and a developing young core offer offensive potential under new coach Jamahl Mosley.
Victor Wembanyama leads last season's runners-up, along with De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper.
Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün, and Amen Thompson anchor a physical, defensively capable team looking to challenge San Antonio.
Reigning Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg and a returning Kyrie Irving give Dallas significant upside, although the team must improve.
Memphis enters a rebuilding phase after moving on from Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., led by Cameron Boozer.
Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, and a developing young core offer offensive potential under new coach Jamahl Mosley.
The San Antonio Spurs are my prediction to win the 2026-27 Southwest Division, backed by the strongest combination of established performance, defensive efficiency, and roster upside. San Antonio finished last season with a +8.3 net rating, second in the NBA, compared with Houston's +5.4. The Spurs also ranked fourth in offensive rating (119.6) and third in defensive rating (111.3), demonstrating the balance necessary to sustain a division-winning regular season. Wembanyama's rim protection and offensive versatility provide a significant advantage, while the continued development of Castle and Harper gives San Antonio additional room for improvement.
Houston should be the Spurs' top challenger. The Rockets ranked sixth in defensive rating (113.2) last season and led the NBA with a 34.8% offensive rebounding rate. Their ability to generate additional possessions, defend physically, and attack through Şengün creates a legitimate pathway to competing with San Antonio. However, the Spurs' superior two-way efficiency and greater offensive versatility make them the more reliable choice over 82 games. Houston's chances depend partly on Durant maintaining his production and Fred VanVleet successfully reintegrating into the rotation.
Dallas has the talent to make the division more competitive if Flagg takes another significant step and Irving stays healthy, but overcoming the substantial gap from last season remains difficult. Memphis and New Orleans appear more likely to focus on development than challenge for the division crown. Ultimately, San Antonio offers the strongest championship outlook, while Houston is the alternative worth evaluating if its futures market pricing provides a sufficiently attractive return.
Wemby vs. Sengun
The matchup between San Antonio's elite rim protector and Houston's versatile offensive center could significantly influence the direct meetings between the division's leading contenders.
Offensive Rebounding
The Rockets led the league with a 34.8% offensive rebounding rate in 2025-26. Whether San Antonio can limit Houston's second-chance opportunities will be particularly important in their head-to-head games.
Spurs Guard Play
The fit between Fox, Castle, and Harper will determine whether the Spurs can improve their half-court creation without sacrificing the defensive identity that helped power last season's Finals appearance.
Flagg & Irving
A breakout sophomore season from Flagg, combined with Irving's return, could transform the Mavericks into a dangerous opponent capable of taking important wins from San Antonio and Houston.
Memphis' Youth Movement
With Morant and Jackson gone, the development of Boozer, Coward, and Zach Edey will influence how competitive Memphis remains against its Southwest rivals.
