2026 World Cup Group L Guide: Odds, Picks & Team Analysis
Updated June 4, 2026
Updated June 4, 2026
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/1d9iXQQywHs
2026 FIFA World Cup
June 17 to 27, 2026 · Dallas · Toronto · Boston · Philadelphia · New York / New Jersey
Teams
EN
Unbeaten qualifying run
England
FIFA #4
group win
-335
🇭🇷
Croatia
FIFA #11
group win
+400
🇬🇭
Ghana
FIFA #74
group win
+1000
🇵🇦
Panama
FIFA #71
group win
+2500
Overview
Sharp Sheet
Fixtures
Standings
Best bets
England
Expert insight: England vs Croatia on June 17 at AT&T Stadium in Dallas is the match that sets the tone for Group L. England start as heavy favorites on paper, but this is the same fixture that eliminated England from the 2018 World Cup semi-finals. Modric at 40 is a different proposition than the player who dismantled Gareth Southgate's side eight years ago, but the midfield battle between him, Kovacic and Sucic against Rice and Anderson is still the most tactically loaded head-to-head in the group.
ATS.io expert verdicts
Market | Top pick | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
Group winner | England (-335) | Won all eight UEFA qualifiers, scoring 22 and conceding zero. Harry Kane, Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka are automatic starters of world-class quality. Tuchel has implemented a coherent 4-2-3-1 identity that England's depth can sustain across three group matches. The price is short because the outcome is not in doubt. |
Second place | Croatia (+400 group win) | Dalić won seven of eight qualifying matches. Modric, Kovacic and Sucic remain a midfield unit capable of controlling possession against any team at this level. Gvardiol at left-back is the best individual defender in the group outside England's centre-backs. Ghana's new coach and late-camp appointment raises legitimate questions about cohesion that Croatia, with a settled spine, do not share. |
Match to watch | ENG vs CRO (MD1) | AT&T Stadium in Dallas on June 17. The group's most historically loaded fixture and the one that decides who finishes top. Bellingham vs Croatia's veteran midfield is the individual matchup the tournament preview was written around. Eight years after the semi-final, the stakes are lower but the psychological weight remains. |
Top scorer pick | Harry Kane | 55-plus goals across all competitions for Bayern Munich in 2025/26. England's structure under Tuchel generates chances in volume through the wide positions that Saka, Bellingham and Rashford provide. Against Ghana and Panama in particular, Kane will have multiple scoring opportunities across the 90 minutes in each match. |
Key fixture: England vs Croatia (June 17, AT&T Stadium, Dallas) opens the group and decides its direction. The same fixture ended England's 2018 World Cup semi-final run. Tuchel's preparation, and the midfield battle between Rice and Croatia's veteran trio, is the most tactically loaded head-to-head in Group L.
Projected standings
Team | Advance odds | Chance | |
|---|---|---|---|
England | -5000 | 99% | |
Croatia | -145 | 65% | |
Ghana | +220 | 30% | |
Panama | +600 | 10% |
Green = projected to advance. Amber = genuine contest for second place and third-place wildcard potential in the expanded format.
Group analysis
Group L carries the weight of English expectation, the twilight of Croatian football's greatest generation, the emergence of two African and Central American sides with enough quality to complicate the narrative, and one of the most emotionally loaded fixture histories in the tournament. England vs Croatia, played on June 17 at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, is the reunion that 2018 World Cup watchers will remember with clarity. It was in Moscow that Modric's Croatia dismantled Southgate's England 2-1 in extra time, denying the Three Lions a first World Cup final since 1966. Eight years later, the setting is Texas, the England manager is German, and the Croatian midfielder is 40 years old. The match still matters. It still defines the group.
England under Thomas Tuchel have been the most statistically dominant team in European qualifying. Eight matches, eight wins, 22 goals, zero conceded. The German manager, appointed after Southgate's resignation following Euro 2024, has implemented a 4-2-3-1 system that suits the squad's depth across every position. Harry Kane at Bayern Munich has redefined what an elite striker looks like at 31, combining goalscoring volume, hold-up play, and movement off the ball that no other number nine in this group can approach. Declan Rice captained Arsenal to the brink of a Premier League and Champions League double in 2025/26 and is the defensive midfielder every top manager in world football would build around. Bukayo Saka is the wide forward who creates the most chances from open play of any England player. Tuchel's selection dilemma at number 10, between Bellingham, Eze and Rogers, is the most interesting tactical question the group stage will answer. What it will not answer is whether England qualify. They will.
Croatia arrive at this tournament as the final act of a generation. Zlatko Dalic has managed the national team since 2017, building around Modric at the centre of everything and delivering back-to-back World Cup medals: silver in 2018, bronze in 2022. Luka Modric at 40 is playing what everyone expects to be his final major tournament, and the emotional narrative around that farewell could either sharpen Croatia's performances or create the kind of distraction that costs them points in a group where every margin matters. Mateo Kovacic, still operating at Premier League level at Manchester City, gives the midfield its technical control alongside Modric. Josko Gvardiol at left-back is one of the best defenders in world football at his peak, and Luka Sucic provides the young energy that the squad needs to rotate around the veterans. The concern is the ageing core that extends beyond Modric: Ivan Perisic at 37, Andrej Kramaric at 34, and a forward line that lacks the genuine clinical striker quality Croatia had in their peak 2018 vintage. Dalić's 4-3-3 is built for midfield control and transition, not for absorbing pressure from a Kane-led attack for 90 minutes. Against England in MD1, that will be the real test.
Ghana enter the tournament under Carlos Queiroz, appointed in April 2026 following the dismissal of Otto Addo after heavy friendly defeats to Austria and Germany. Queiroz is one of the most experienced international coaches in world football, with stints at Portugal, South Africa, Iran, Colombia, Egypt and others across a career built on defensive organisation and tournament pragmatism. The preparation window he has had with this squad is minimal, and the tactical identity he is building differs from the transitional 4-2-3-1 that Addo developed across the qualifying cycle. The individual quality remains real. Antoine Semenyo at Manchester City, and Inaki Williams at Athletic Club are attackers who can cause problems for any defence in the group. Thomas Partey's fitness, as always with Villarreal's Ghanaian midfielder, is the key variable in whether the system functions with the defensive screen it requires. The late coaching change is the X-factor that makes Ghana harder to assess and harder to back at the odds the market currently offers.
Panama return to the World Cup for only the second time in their history, eight years after their debut appearance in Russia 2018 where they lost all three group games to Belgium, England and Tunisia. Thomas Christiansen, the Danish coach who has managed Panama since 2020, built this qualification on defensive compactness, collective organisation, and an experienced spine that knows how to grind results in the CONCACAF environment. Captain Anibal Godoy approaches 160 international caps. Adalberto Carrasquilla won the CONCACAF Best Player award in 2023. Amir Murillo at Besiktas is the squad's most technically accomplished individual. Panama are not here to be grateful. They went unbeaten in their last 12 competitive matches of 2025 before the tournament. In a group containing England, Croatia and Ghana, that record means something. Their task is to make the group uncomfortable for everyone, and the expanded format's wildcard pathway gives them a concrete target.
Matchday 1 — Friday, June 17
England vs Croatia
4:00 PM ET
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
ENG -200
Draw +340
CRO +500
Ghana vs Panama
7:00 PM ET
BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
GHA -175
Draw +310
PAN +440
Matchday 2 — Tuesday, June 23
England vs Ghana
4:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
ENG -350
Draw +460
GHA +900
Panama vs Croatia
7:00 PM ET
BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
PAN +600
Draw +350
CRO -220
Matchday 3 — Saturday, June 27 (simultaneous)
Panama vs England
5:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
PAN +850
Draw +600
ENG -450
Croatia vs Ghana
5:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
CRO -160
Draw +290
GHA +380
Odds via FanDuel. Lines subject to change.
Current standings
Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | England | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | Croatia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Ghana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Panama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 2 teams per group qualify automatically for the Round of 32. The 8 best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also advance. Tiebreakers in order: points, goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head, fair play, drawing of lots.
Best bets
Best value
England / Croatia group exacta
+110
England win the group, Croatia finish second. Dalić's side won seven of eight qualifying matches. Modric and Kovacic are past their peaks but not past being the best midfield Croatia have ever had access to. Ghana's late coaching change, heavy friendly defeats, and Queiroz's minimal preparation time give the market a reason to discount them that this pick exploits.
Match pick
England to win vs Croatia (MD1)
-200
The group opener in Dallas is the game England need to control. Tuchel has had more time with this squad than Southgate ever managed, and the system is more coherent than anything England took to Russia in 2018. Rice vs Modric is a generational passing of the torch moment. Back the current generation to win it.
Long shot
Ghana to advance from Group L
+220
Queiroz's appointment changes the tactical identity but not the squad quality. Semenyo at Manchester City, Williams, Partey when fit. If Ghana beat Panama in MD1 and then Croatia in MD3, the wildcard path opens. The +220 advance price reflects a real scenario, not a lottery. A coaching change this close to a tournament is a market inefficiency as much as a risk.
Group L betting analysis
England at -335 to win the group is close to the shortest group-winner price in the tournament outside Spain and France. Tuchel's record since taking charge has been exceptional: an 11-match competitive winning run, a perfect qualifying campaign, and a squad that has the depth to rotate without dropping performance level. Kane has scored 55-plus goals across all competitions this season. Rice is one of the top three defensive midfielders in world football. Saka, when fit, is the kind of wide forward who makes clear-cut chances from nothing. If Bellingham starts and is given the freedom to arrive late into the box from a deeper 10 position, England have a different attacking threat to the one Croatia's veterans will have studied most closely.
Croatia's second-place case is built on one thing: midfield quality. Modric, Kovacic and Sucic control possession better than any midfield three Ghana or Panama can match. Against England, the question is how they manage Declan Rice's physicality and Anderson's box-to-box threat in a head-to-head where Croatia will not have the ball as much as they are used to. Kramaric at 34 needs service to be effective. Perisic at 37 is still a dangerous wide presence at full fitness. Gvardiol at left-back is the most dangerous attacking defender in the group outside Reece James. If Croatia get something from the England match, even a draw, the group is theirs to lose. If England win convincingly in Dallas, Croatia's path to second is still clear through Panama in MD2 and Ghana in MD3, both of which Dalić should win.
The Ghana advance market at +220 is the most debated price in Group L. The late coaching change under Queiroz is the primary concern: he has had weeks, not months, to implement a defensive structure onto a squad that was playing a different system under Addo. The heavy defeats to Austria in Vienna, 5-1, and Germany, 2-1, under the previous coach raised questions about squad depth and defensive resilience that Queiroz has had a single preparation window to address. What he brings is tournament experience. He took Iran to consecutive World Cups. He knows how to organize a team to be hard to beat over 90 minutes, which is Ghana's most realistic path to a result against Croatia. With Kudus being injured, Ghana's attacking quality is set back. Otherwise The front three of Semenyo on the right, Kudus through the middle, and Inaki Williams on the left could have been one of the most technically gifted attacking units among the African sides at the tournament. Partey's fitness is the key variable. With him screening, the system can function. Without him, the midfield questions that plagued the March friendlies resurface.
Player props
HK
Harry Kane anytime scorer
England vs Croatia (MD1)
-140
BS
Bukayo Saka anytime scorer
England vs Ghana (MD2)
-115
AS
Antoine Semenyo anytime scorer
Ghana vs Panama (MD1)
+180
Odds correct at time of writing via FanDuel. Lines subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
Full Group L team notes
England arrive at the 2026 FIFA World Cup as Group L favorites under Thomas Tuchel after a dominant qualifying campaign. Harry Kane, Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka lead a deep squad, with the main selection debate around the number 10 role and the balance between Jude Bellingham, Morgan Rogers and Eberechi Eze.
Croatia enter the tournament as the final act for Luka Modric and the veteran core that reached the 2018 World Cup final and finished third in 2022. Their midfield of Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Luka Sucic gives them a clear path to second place, although age and striker depth remain concerns.
Ghana arrive under Carlos Queiroz after a late coaching change. Antoine Semenyo, Inaki Williams and Thomas Partey give Ghana enough individual quality to challenge Croatia, but the preparation window and defensive cohesion are the key questions.
Panama make only their second World Cup appearance and rely on Thomas Christiansen's defensive organisation, Anibal Godoy's experience, Adalberto Carrasquilla's creativity and Amir Murillo's attacking output from right-back.
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