Fiorentina vs Inter Milan Prediction - October 25, 2026

Introduction

Inter Milan vs Fiorentina prediction comes from Serie A's regular-season slate at San Siro, and our model expects Inter to control it. We’re projecting a 2-1 home win and a lean to the Under. Inter sit first with 19 points, but their attack has slightly outpaced its xG by 1.06. Fiorentina are 18th, yet their xGA is only 13.09 across seven matches, so the table gap is wider than the chance quality gap.

Prediction

• ●Recommended Position: Under 3.5 goals (+102, FanDuel)
• ●Model Probability: 53.0%
• ●Market Probability: 49.5%
• ●Model Edge: +3.5 pp
• ●Entry Threshold: +100
• ●Model Confidence: 65/100

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: Inter Milan 2-1 Fiorentina
• ●Projected Total: 3.0 goals

Why This Position Stands Out

The Under 3.5 position clears our three-point edge bar by a workable margin. At the current entry, the market implies 49.5%, while our model sits at 53.0%, and the playable floor is +100. The case starts with pace control. Inter average 7.3 shots on target per match, while Fiorentina sit at 5.4, so this doesn’t profile like a wide-open track meet. Regression also helps the Under case. Fiorentina have scored 8 goals from 11.20 xG, so their attack has lagged expected output. Inter have allowed 9 goals from 9.64 xGA, which is tidy, but not so fragile that a shootout is the default script. The main risk is Inter’s own finishing, because 21 goals from 22.06 xG shows a front line that can still turn a controlled match into a multi-goal home win.