Updated September 2, 2026
The Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros are back at Daikin Park Wednesday night for Game 3 of their four-game series. They’ve split the first two, with Houston taking Monday’s opener before Chicago answered with a 5-1 win last night.
First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. CDT, with Davis Martin (9-6, 4.32 ERA) on the mound for Chicago against Hayden Wesneski (4-1, 3.86 ERA) for Houston. In this White Sox vs Astros preview, I’ll share my prediction and break down what to expect from two AL division leaders with plenty still at stake down the stretch.
I’m taking the Astros to win Game 3 on Wednesday night, with Houston currently trading at around 56¢ on Polymarket. There are just too many factors working against the White Sox for me in this one.
For starters, Davis Martin is returning from a stint on the 15-day injured list with a finger blister, and he wasn't pitching particularly well before going down. Martin posted a combined 8.16 ERA and 1.75 WHIP across July and August, and the White Sox haven't won one of his starts away from home since May 22.
That also plays into a bigger concern with Chicago. Despite sitting eight games above .500 overall, the White Sox are just 32-38 on the road this season. Meanwhile, Hayden Wesneski has started to settle in after a delayed start to his season, giving me another reason to lean toward Houston at home.
If you’d rather stay away from picking a winner, Over 8.5 at around 53¢ is another option I like. Our ATS Quantitative Model for White Sox vs Astros projects a 5-4 Houston win, which would put this game just over the current total.
It’s been a long road back for Hayden Wesneski. The Astros right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2025 after leaving a start with elbow discomfort, ending his season and keeping him out of the majors for more than a year. After five minor league rehab starts, he finally returned to Houston’s rotation on July 29.
Wesneski has looked pretty good since coming back, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across six starts. He’s also coming off one of his better outings of the year, allowing just one earned run on three hits with six strikeouts over five innings against the Yankees in a 5-1 win.
More importantly, Houston has won five of Wesneski’s six starts since his return. It may have taken him most of the season to get back on the mound, but he seems to be finding his form at just the right time. With the postseason about a month away and the Astros still fighting to secure their spot, Wesneski could have a big role to play down the stretch.
After finishing last in the AL Central in back-to-back years, including a brutal 41-121 record in 2024 and a 60-102 finish in 2025, the White Sox have been one of baseball’s biggest surprises this season. At 73-65, they’re on track for their first winning season since 2021 and have a real chance to make the playoffs for the first time since then.
The one thing that stands out, though, is how different Chicago has looked away from home. The White Sox are 41-27 at home but just 32-38 on the road, with much of that difference coming from their pitching. They have a 3.60 team ERA and 1.24 WHIP at home, compared to a 4.70 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road.
And those splits carry over to Wednesday’s starter. Davis Martin has a 5.32 ERA on the road, with opponents hitting .295 against him. At home, those numbers drop to a 3.20 ERA and .232 opponent batting average.
The White Sox have already come a long way from where they were the last two seasons. Now they’ll need to figure out how to win more consistently away from Chicago if they want to finish the job down the stretch.
Of course, Wednesday’s matchup and the rest of this series are important just because of how tight both division races are. The 73-65 White Sox hold a three-game lead over the Guardians in the AL Central, while the 70-69 Astros are just one game ahead of the Rangers in the AL West.
But there’s something else at stake here, too: a potential first-round bye. The two AL division winners with the best records will skip the Wild Card round and advance straight to the ALDS. Right now, Chicago is in position for one of those spots, sitting 3.5 games ahead of Houston.
That makes the season series between these teams worth keeping an eye on. Houston took two of three from Chicago back in late July, meaning an Astros win either Wednesday or Thursday would clinch the season series and give them the head-to-head tiebreaker if the two teams eventually finish with the same record.
There’s still plenty of baseball left, but with division titles and playoff positioning both on the line, these September games are starting to mean a little more.
For more analysis as the playoff races heat up, check out our daily MLB predictions for the latest games and picks from around the league.
