Brewers vs Rays Player Props: 3 Predictions for World Series Game 4
Updated October 27, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket.us and may change based on trading activity leading up to first pitch.
Updated October 27, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket.us and may change based on trading activity leading up to first pitch.
The Milwaukee Brewers are one win away from their first World Series title as they face the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 4 on Tuesday, October 27. First pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field, with the game airing on FOX.
Milwaukee holds a commanding 3-0 series lead following a 10-1 win in Game 3. Tampa Bay will turn to Griffin Jax (8-10, 3.53 ERA) to avoid elimination, while the Brewers have yet to announce their starter. Dustin May, Kyle Harrison, and Shane Drohan are among the possibilities, although Milwaukee could opt for a bullpen game.
With the Rays facing elimination and some uncertainty surrounding Milwaukee's pitching plans, I'm focusing on MLB player props to find value. Below, I'll break down my three predictions involving Griffin Jax, Yandy Díaz, and William Contreras, along with the stats, trends, and matchups supporting each one.
Previous Struggles Against Milwaukee
Jax faced the Brewers twice during the regular season, allowing five runs (three earned) while recording just one strikeout in one combined inning. It's a small sample, but Milwaukee has already had success against him.
Limited Postseason Workload
Jax recorded just two strikeouts over four innings against Cleveland in the ALCS, allowing five hits and two walks on 67 pitches. He's also thrown only six innings across two postseason appearances, raising questions about how deep he'll pitch in Game 4.
Milwaukee's Red-Hot Offense
The Brewers collected 16 hits in their 10-1 Game 3 victory and are batting .277 over their last 10 games. With Tampa Bay facing elimination, another strong offensive start could force Kevin Cash to turn to his bullpen early, limiting Jax's strikeout opportunities.
Recommended Prediction:
Griffin Jax 4+ Ks (No)
Current Market Price:
50¢
Model Under Probability:
56.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
50.0%
Model Edge:
+6.1%
Buy Up To:
55¢
Model Confidence:
76/100
Elite Contact and Hit Production
Yandy Díaz led the American League with 180 hits during the regular season while batting .293. He also struck out in just 14.3% of his plate appearances, giving him plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play and reach base.
Recent Postseason Success
Díaz recorded nine hits, six runs, and four RBIs across six ALCS games against Cleveland. He cleared 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs in five of those six games, showing his ability to contribute in multiple categories.
Leadoff Role and Scoring Opportunities
Díaz recorded 686 plate appearances during the regular season, finishing with 93 runs and 85 RBIs. He's projected to bat leadoff again in Game 4, with Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero hitting behind him to provide additional opportunities to score.
Recommended Prediction:
Yandy Díaz 2+ HRR (Yes)
Current Market Price:
49¢
Model Over Probability:
54.6%
Market-Implied Probability:
49.0%
Model Edge:
+5.6%
Buy Up To:
53¢
Model Confidence:
73/100
World Series Production
Contreras is batting .538 (7-for-13) through the first three games against Tampa Bay, with three RBIs and one run scored. He's cleared this line in all three games, including a 3-for-5 performance in Game 3.
Improved Contact and Plate Discipline
Contreras lowered his strikeout rate to 14.7% during the regular season, down from 18.2% in 2025. He also maintained a 44.1% hard-hit rate, giving him a good combination of contact ability and quality at-bats.
Cleanup Role and RBI Opportunities
Contreras is projected to bat fourth behind Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, and Christian Yelich. He drove in 94 runs during the regular season, and hitting behind Milwaukee's top three batters should give him plenty of opportunities to add to that total.
Recommended Prediction:
Contreras 2+ HRR (Yes)
Current Market Price:
51¢
Model Over Probability:
55.9%
Market-Implied Probability:
51.0%
Model Edge:
+4.9%
Buy Up To:
55¢
Model Confidence:
69/100
The Milwaukee Brewers are priced at 53¢ on Polymarket, implying roughly a 53% chance of sweeping the Rays and winning their first World Series title on Tuesday night.
The market also expects a relatively low-scoring game, with Over 6.5 runs trading at 57¢ and Over 7.5 runs at 45¢.
While low totals have been common throughout the postseason, I'm expecting Díaz and Contreras to be involved in whatever offense their teams generate. Both hit near the top of their respective lineups and have multiple ways to clear their combined hits, runs, and RBIs lines.
Meanwhile, with Tampa Bay facing elimination, Rays manager Kevin Cash could have a quick hook for Jax if he struggles early, which would work in favor of his strikeout Under.
Our model also favors Milwaukee, projecting a 4-3 victory in Game 4. Check out our full Brewers vs Rays prediction for more on the matchup.
