Updated September 2, 2026
The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs meet Wednesday night at Wrigley Field for Game 3 of their four-game series. The two teams split the first two, with Milwaukee bouncing back last night for a 9-4 win after getting to the Cubs’ bullpen late.
First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. CDT, with what looks like an obvious pitching mismatch at first glance. Jacob Misiorowski (14-5, 1.73 ERA) gets the start for Milwaukee against David Peterson (7-7, 5.11 ERA) for Chicago.
In this Brewers vs Cubs preview, I’ll share my prediction for Wednesday’s matchup and break down what to expect as the top two teams in the NL Central meet again at Wrigley.
The Brewers are currently trading at around 60¢ on Polymarket, while the Cubs are available at about 41¢. I’m going against the market a bit here. I think Chicago has a real shot to take down Misiorowski, but for my official prediction, I’ll play it a little safer with Cubs +1.5 at 54¢.
And yes, it should make you a little nervous backing a team that's facing the NL Cy Young favorite and arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now. Misiorowski enters Wednesday with an MLB-best 1.73 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Still, I think this Cubs lineup can give him some trouble. His ERA rises slightly to 1.86 on the road, and Chicago ranks third in MLB with a .756 OPS against right-handed pitching. The Cubs have also faced Misiorowski twice already this season, so they should have a better idea of what they're up against.
On the other side, David Peterson has quietly been pitching much better than his 5.11 season ERA would have you believe. He posted a 2.83 ERA in August and has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts. If that version of Peterson shows up again Wednesday, I like Chicago's chances of keeping this close.
If you like both starters tonight, Under 8.5 at 53¢ is another option I like. Our ATS Quantitative Model for Brewers vs Cubs projects exactly eight runs, giving us a little more reason to lean toward a lower-scoring game at Wrigley.
As I mentioned earlier, the Cubs have already seen Misiorowski twice this season, and neither matchup went particularly well for Chicago.
The first came on May 19 at Wrigley Field, when Misiorowski tossed six scoreless innings, allowing just three hits while striking out eight in a 5-2 Brewers win. He was nearly as dominant when the teams met again in Milwaukee on June 26, giving up just one earned run and two hits with another eight strikeouts across six innings. He did walk four batters that night, but Milwaukee still came away with a 6-2 win.
And Misiorowski’s success against the Cubs actually goes back to last year’s postseason. Across two appearances in the 2025 NLDS, he pitched seven innings and allowed just one earned run on four hits, with Milwaukee winning both games.
Misiorowski has clearly had the Cubs’ number over the last two seasons. Now we’ll see if a third look this year finally makes a difference.
The good news for the Cubs is that their offense has been rolling lately. Chicago has scored four or more runs in 14 of its last 16 games, averaging just under seven runs per game (6.8) during that stretch.
And it’s not like this came out of nowhere. The Cubs lead MLB this season in OPS (.773), home runs (196), walks (586), and runs scored (746). So even with Misiorowski on the mound, I trust Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alex Bregman, and the rest of this lineup to do enough to keep Chicago in the game.
For me, the bigger question is what happens on the other side. If Peterson can continue his recent form and the Cubs’ bullpen holds up better than it did last night, Chicago should have a real chance to pull off the upset.
With just under a month left in the regular season, the Brewers have put themselves in a great spot in the NL Central. Milwaukee enters Wednesday at 86-53, eight games ahead of the 78-61 Cubs, and Polymarket currently gives the Brewers around a 95% chance to win the division.
So, for the moment at least, Milwaukee can start setting its sights on an even bigger goal: the No. 1 seed in the National League and potentially the best record in baseball. That would give the Brewers a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the entire postseason.
They're in good shape there, too. The Braves sit four games back at 82-57, while the two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers are 3.5 games behind at 82-56. And if you're already thinking about home-field advantage in a potential World Series matchup, the AL-leading Rays aren't far behind either at 83-55.
It might be tempting for Milwaukee to start looking ahead to October with such a comfortable division lead, but there’s still plenty to play for over the final few weeks. Holding onto that No. 1 seed could make a big difference once the postseason begins, giving the Brewers plenty of reason to keep pushing even if the NL Central race is nearly wrapped up.
For more analysis as the playoff races heat up, check out our daily MLB predictions for the latest games and picks from around the league.
