Updated August 14, 2026
The New York Yankees open a 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night with both clubs coming off series wins, but their positions in the American League playoff race are very different. New York enters at 68-53 and owns the top Wild Card position, while Toronto sits at 59-64 but has moved within 2 games of the final Wild Card spot. The Yankees have won 3 of their last 5, while Toronto has won 5 of its last 7, setting up an important series opener at Rogers Centre.
Our projection gives New York an edge over the current market price. The Yankees are around -150 on the moneyline, while Toronto is around +125, with the total sitting at 8 runs. A 64% win probability equates to a fair moneyline of roughly -178, leaving some room between our model's assessment and the available price.
Gerrit Cole is the biggest reason for the Yankees edge. He enters the game after striking out 21 hitters across his last 18.2 innings while allowing only 3 runs during that span. Bieber, meanwhile, allowed 5 earned runs, 6 hits and 3 walks in his most recent start against Philadelphia. Toronto has played much better recently, and Bieber has pitched well at Rogers Centre this season, but the overall starting-pitcher gap still favors New York.
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Gerrit Cole gets the ball for New York in his 15th start of the season. The veteran right-hander is 6-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 3.36 FIP across 80.2 innings. His recent form is particularly encouraging for bettors. Cole has struck out 21 hitters over his last 18.2 innings and surrendered only 3 runs during that stretch. His latest outing came against Atlanta on August 8, when he worked 7 innings, allowed 2 runs on 6 hits and struck out 9 without issuing a walk.
Cole's career numbers against Toronto provide another reason to favor New York. He is 9-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 18 starts against the Blue Jays, including a 2-hit shutout in 2023. Toronto's current lineup has enough power to create problems, but Cole's ability to miss bats and limit free passes makes him a strong fit for this matchup.
Shane Bieber counters for Toronto with a 3-2 record and a 5.48 ERA. The former Cy Young winner returned from injury in late June and has produced a mixed collection of outings. He did allow only 1 run with 6 strikeouts against Houston on August 3, but his most recent start was much less encouraging. Bieber surrendered 5 earned runs, 6 hits and 3 walks across 5.2 innings against Philadelphia on August 9.
There is one reason to avoid overlooking Bieber entirely: he has been effective at Rogers Centre this season. He is 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA in 4 home starts at the stadium. That home split gives Toronto a path to keeping this game close, particularly if Bieber can avoid the free passes and hard contact that have hurt him during his rougher outings.
The biggest concern for the Yankees is the condition of their lineup. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger have all dealt with injuries, and Judge's return remains uncertain. That reduces New York's offensive ceiling and is part of the reason the projection lands at 5 runs rather than a larger number. Still, the combination of Cole's recent form, his history against Toronto and the Yankees' strong road record makes New York our preferred side.
My best bet is therefore the Yankees moneyline. The 5-3 projection gives New York a 2-run advantage, but the uncertainty surrounding the lineup makes laying -1.5 runs less attractive than simply backing the Yankees to win. Toronto's recent improvement and Bieber's strong home results should keep this competitive, yet Cole provides the more reliable starting point and gives New York the edge in a game where every run should matter.
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