NFL MVP Odds 2026: Favorites, Long Shots & Betting Analysis
Updated October 21, 2026
Updated October 21, 2026
The NFL MVP race is taking shape as the 2026 season moves toward its midpoint. Josh Allen and Brock Purdy have separated themselves from the field in the betting market, while Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, and Joe Burrow remain among the leading contenders.
But the favorites aren't the only players worth watching. NFL history includes several examples of quarterbacks overcoming long preseason odds to win the award, including Matt Ryan's memorable 2016 campaign.
Below, we examine the latest NFL MVP odds, the leading candidates, potential long shots, and the factors bettors should consider before placing a futures wager.
Josh Allen is the current NFL MVP favorite at +190, followed by Brock Purdy at +275. Patrick Mahomes sits third at +750, with Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow rounding out the top five.
The following odds were reported by DraftKings Sportsbook on October 19, 2026.
Player | NFL MVP Odds |
|---|---|
Josh Allen | +190 |
Brock Purdy | +275 |
Patrick Mahomes | +750 |
Trevor Lawrence | +900 |
Joe Burrow | +1000 |
Drake Maye | +1400 |
Lamar Jackson | +1700 |
Dak Prescott | +3000 |
Jared Goff | +3500 |
Matthew Stafford | +4000 |
These prices represent a snapshot of the market and may have changed since publication.
For other futures markets and current game lines, visit our NFL betting odds page.
Allen has reclaimed the top spot in the MVP market after leading Buffalo to a 5-1 record through six games.
The Bills quarterback has accounted for 17 touchdowns this season, including nine passing and eight rushing. That dual-threat production is a major part of his MVP case, giving him opportunities to influence games even when his passing numbers aren't particularly impressive.
At +190, though, Allen's strong start is already reflected in his price.
A $100 wager would return $190 in profit if he wins the award. Bettors considering Allen need to decide if his chances of winning justify a price that implies a probability of approximately 34.5%.
Purdy has emerged as Allen's closest competitor in the MVP market.
His +275 odds reflect both his individual performances and San Francisco's position among the leading teams in the NFC.
For Purdy, the remaining schedule and the 49ers' ability to maintain their success will be important. MVP voters have historically placed considerable weight on quarterback performance for teams competing near the top of their conference.
The challenge for bettors is identifying value at a relatively short price. Purdy's odds have already shortened considerably compared with the preseason market.
Mahomes remains firmly in contention at +750.
Kansas City's strong start gives him an opportunity to build another MVP case, although his individual statistics haven't been as dominant as in some of his previous award-winning seasons.
His experience and ability to deliver standout performances in important games make him a candidate worth monitoring.
Still, a recognizable name and an impressive career record aren't enough to justify an MVP wager. His current production and the competition ahead of him matter much more.
The gap between the leading candidates and the rest of the market is significant.
That creates opportunities for larger potential payouts, but long-shot bets require a realistic path to winning the award.
Prescott is an established quarterback whose odds offer a much larger return than those of Allen or Purdy.
For his MVP candidacy to gain momentum, Dallas would likely need a strong second half of the season, accompanied by impressive passing statistics.
His +3000 odds imply a probability of approximately 3.2%, before accounting for the sportsbook's margin.
That makes Prescott an interesting candidate to monitor, although the current price reflects how much ground he has to make up.
Goff's MVP prospects are closely connected to Detroit's performance.
If the Lions finish among the NFC's leading teams and Goff delivers consistently strong passing numbers, his standing in the race could improve.
The question is how his production compares with quarterbacks such as Allen, Purdy, and Mahomes.
Efficient quarterback play is valuable, but winning MVP generally requires a combination of excellent individual numbers and significant team success.
Stafford is another experienced quarterback available at long odds.
A strong finish from the Rams, supported by productive passing performances, could improve his candidacy.
However, +4000 shouldn't automatically be considered attractive simply because the potential payout is substantial.
Bettors need to evaluate the likelihood of Stafford overtaking several quarterbacks who have already established stronger MVP cases.
Matt Ryan's 2016 MVP season remains one of the most interesting examples of a successful NFL futures long shot.
Before the season, Ryan was available at approximately 75-1 odds to win the award.
He wasn't considered one of the leading candidates, but his performance changed that perception dramatically.
Ryan finished the 2016 regular season with:
Those numbers helped Ryan secure the NFL MVP award.
At +7500 odds, a $100 winning bet would have returned $7,500 in profit, plus the original stake.
Ryan's season illustrates why preseason favorites don't always win and why an overlooked quarterback can become a serious contender when individual production and team success come together.
Ahead of the 2024 NFL season, ATS examined 10 potential long-shot MVP candidates in an article subsequently distributed through Stacker and published by Digital Journal.
That discussion referenced Ryan's 75-1 preseason odds as an example of how significantly the MVP market can change over a season.
The same principle remains relevant in 2026.
A quarterback can begin the season outside the leading group and move into contention through improved performance, unexpected team success, or a particularly strong stretch of games.
However, Ryan's achievement was exceptional. Long odds alone don't make a bet valuable, and most outsiders never become serious MVP candidates.
Several factors help explain why MVP odds change throughout the season.
Quarterbacks on winning teams generally have an advantage in the MVP conversation.
A player putting up impressive numbers on a struggling team may find it difficult to compete with a similarly productive quarterback leading a division winner or top playoff contender.
Team records, conference standings, and the remaining schedule should all be considered.
Passing touchdowns, yards, efficiency, turnovers, and rushing production can all influence MVP voting.
Allen's rushing ability is particularly relevant because it gives him an additional way to contribute to Buffalo's offense.
For more traditional pocket passers, passing efficiency and touchdown production may carry greater weight.
The most compelling MVP cases typically combine excellent individual statistics with strong team results.
The remaining schedule can influence how the MVP race develops.
A quarterback facing several difficult defenses may have fewer opportunities for standout performances. Favorable matchups, meanwhile, can create opportunities for impressive statistical games.
Before evaluating a candidate's remaining schedule, check our NFL matchup predictions for upcoming games, team strengths, injuries, and betting lines.
Quarterback performance doesn't happen in isolation.
Injuries to offensive linemen, receivers, or other important contributors can affect an offense's efficiency and a quarterback's statistical production.
Changes in personnel can also create new opportunities, particularly when a team adjusts its offensive approach.
Perhaps the most important consideration is the available price.
A player can be a legitimate MVP candidate without offering attractive betting value.
Consider how the implied probability changes across different American odds:
Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $100 Bet |
|---|---|---|
+200 | 33.3% | $200 |
+1000 | 9.1% | $1,000 |
+3000 | 3.2% | $3,000 |
+7500 | 1.3% | $7,500 |
These are mathematical probabilities derived from the listed prices and don't account for the sportsbook's margin.
The goal is to identify a player whose actual chance of winning appears greater than the probability implied by the odds.
There are advantages and disadvantages to betting at different stages of the season.
Before the season: Potential breakout candidates often have longer odds, but there is considerable uncertainty surrounding team performance, injuries, and individual production.
Early and midseason: Bettors have more information about quarterback form and team results. However, players who have performed well will often have shorter prices.
Late season: The field generally becomes clearer, but the leading candidates may offer relatively small payouts.
The best time to bet depends on the available odds and how those prices compare with a player's realistic chances.
It's also worth considering individual game markets instead of committing to a season-long futures bet.
Our NFL expert picks this week feature analysis of upcoming games, betting lines, and player markets, providing shorter-term alternatives to MVP futures.
Josh Allen leads the NFL MVP betting market at +190 as of October 19, 2026. Brock Purdy follows at +275, with Patrick Mahomes at +750. Odds are subject to change.
Yes. Matt Ryan won the 2016 award after entering the season at approximately 75-1 odds. However, that was an exceptional outcome, and most long-shot candidates don't ultimately win the award.
Sportsbooks set MVP odds based on factors including individual performance, team success, projected future results, and betting activity. The odds change as new information becomes available.
No. Passing yards are one factor, but MVP voters also consider touchdowns, efficiency, team success, and a player's overall contribution. Leading the league in passing yards doesn't guarantee the award.
Josh Allen and Brock Purdy have established themselves as the leading MVP candidates in 2026, while Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, and Joe Burrow remain within reach.
The favorites have stronger cases at this stage, but their relatively short odds limit the potential return.
Long shots such as Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Matthew Stafford offer much larger payouts, although each faces a difficult path to winning the award.
Matt Ryan's 75-1 preseason odds in 2016 remain a useful reminder that the market can change dramatically when a quarterback exceeds expectations.
→ Our Take: The strongest MVP bets aren't necessarily the players with the best statistics or the biggest reputations. Price matters just as much. Evaluating remaining schedules, team performance, and the gap between a player's realistic chances and the available odds is the best way to approach this market.
For additional football betting analysis throughout the season, visit our NFL picks and predictions.
Updated October 21, 2026