Drake vs Murray State Prediction: Preview & Pick

This Thursday night, the Drake Bulldogs visit the Murray State Racers in the first game of Missouri Valley Conference play for both squads. Both teams enter this league game looking to establish momentum and build their credentials before the grind of MVC play intensifies. Murray State arrives after a solid start to the season, while Drake is seeking consistency after an inconsistent nonconference slate. Before tip-off in the conference opener for these teams, you will find my Drake vs Murray State prediction right here.

Our Drake vs Murray State Pick

Pick: Drake +7
Confidence: 3/5

Game Snapshot

Matchup: Drake Bulldogs @ Murray State Racers
Date & Time: Thursday, December 18, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
Venue: CFSB Center, Murray, Kentucky
Broadcast: ESPN+

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Key Storylines

The Racers carry an 8-3 overall record into conference play. They have been particularly strong at home, remaining unbeaten in their last five contests at the CFSB Center and shooting efficiently as a group there. Murray State’s offense posted 115 points in its most recent win over Akron, highlighting its scoring ability. But they also gave up 100 points in that game and will have to be better on defense.
Drake enters with a 6-5 record after a challenging nonconference schedule. The Bulldogs have lost two games in a row going into MVC play, having fell to North Dakota State and UAB in their last two outings. But they also defeated Georgia Tech of the ACC during non-conference play. The Bulldogs have struggled in close games, holding an 0-2 record in contests decided by fewer than four points.
Efficiency metrics suggest Murray State’s offense may have an edge in this game. The Racers are shooting nearly 49% from the field this season, a figure that outpaces what Drake’s defense has typically allowed. Meanwhile, Drake’s own shooting numbers and Murray State’s defensive metrics suggest the Bulldogs could have trouble keeping pace. But that could all change now that conference play is upon us.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

Drake is 6-3 all-time against Murray State. These teams split their two games during conference play last season.
Murray State is 7-4 against the spread so far this season.
Drake is 4-5 against the spread going into MVC competition.
The Bulldogs have gone over the total 5 times in 9 chances.
The over has hit in 8 of the 11 games for Murray State.

Drake vs Murray State Model Projection

Score Projection: Murray State 85 – Drake 80

Win Probability: Murray State 68%, Drake 32%

Final Thoughts

I do expect Murray State to come away with a win on their home floor in their first MVC game of the season. But I also think that we are in for a closer game than the point spread would suggest. Expect Drake to keep this game within a couple of possessions and for the underdog to cover the spread in what should be a highly entertaining matchup in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

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Key Storylines

The Racers carry an 8-3 overall record into conference play. They have been particularly strong at home, remaining unbeaten in their last five contests at the CFSB Center and shooting efficiently as a group there. Murray State’s offense posted 115 points in its most recent win over Akron, highlighting its scoring ability. But they also gave up 100 points in that game and will have to be better on defense.

Drake enters with a 6-5 record after a challenging nonconference schedule. The Bulldogs have lost two games in a row going into MVC play, having fell to North Dakota State and UAB in their last two outings. But they also defeated Georgia Tech of the ACC during non-conference play. The Bulldogs have struggled in close games, holding an 0-2 record in contests decided by fewer than four points.

Efficiency metrics suggest Murray State’s offense may have an edge in this game. The Racers are shooting nearly 49% from the field this season, a figure that outpaces what Drake’s defense has typically allowed. Meanwhile, Drake’s own shooting numbers and Murray State’s defensive metrics suggest the Bulldogs could have trouble keeping pace. But that could all change now that conference play is upon us.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

Drake is 6-3 all-time against Murray State. These teams split their two games during conference play last season.

Murray State is 7-4 against the spread so far this season.

Drake is 4-5 against the spread going into MVC competition.

The Bulldogs have gone over the total 5 times in 9 chances.

The over has hit in 8 of the 11 games for Murray State.

Final Thoughts

Affiliate Disclosure

Drake Bulldogs vs Murray State Racers Preview & Prediction - 12/18/2025

Our Drake vs Murray State Pick

Game Snapshot

Key Storylines

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

Drake vs Murray State Model Projection

Final Thoughts

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Our Drake vs Murray State Pick

Game Snapshot

Key Storylines

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

Drake vs Murray State Model Projection

Final Thoughts