Updated August 18, 2026
PredictIt is a real-money prediction market focused primarily on politics. Eligible users can buy and sell Yes/No shares tied to elections, nominations, confirmations, legislation, court decisions and other significant political events in the U.S. and abroad.
Our verdict: PredictIt remains one of the most recognizable politics-focused prediction markets available to U.S. users, but it is not the cheapest or broadest option. It makes the most sense for users who specifically want political markets. It is less appealing if you want sports, entertainment, broader event categories, lower fees or a more flexible trading platform.
The biggest things to understand before using PredictIt are its 10% profit fee, 5% withdrawal fee, narrower market scope, investment limits and unusual regulatory framework.
Unlike Kalshi, PredictIt does not operate as a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market. Instead, it operates under conditional CFTC staff no-action relief that dates to 2014 and was substantially amended in 2025.
New to this category? Start with our full prediction markets guide, or compare PredictIt with alternatives like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Best for | Political prediction markets |
Not ideal for | Sports, entertainment, broader event categories or high-volume trading |
Market type | Yes/No event contracts |
Main fees | 10% fee on profits + 5% withdrawal fee |
Legal framework | Conditional CFTC staff no-action relief |
Original no-action relief | 2014 |
Latest major amendment | July 2025 |
Market focus | Elections and significant political questions |
Maximum investment | Tied to the FECA individual contribution limit; $3,500 for the 2025–26 cycle |
Old 5,000-trader limit | Removed in 2025 |
Mobile app | No dedicated native trading app identified; mobile website available |
Main alternative | Kalshi for broader U.S. event markets |
PredictIt is worth considering if you specifically want a real-money platform built around political outcomes.
The market structure is easy to understand. Users buy Yes or No shares based on whether an event will happen, and prices move as traders react to polls, elections, political news, government decisions and other developments.
PredictIt's biggest drawback is cost.
The platform charges:
Those two layers of fees can create substantial drag, particularly for active traders.
PredictIt's market selection is also narrower than platforms such as Kalshi. Politics is the core product, so users looking for sports, weather, entertainment or a wider range of event contracts will generally find more options elsewhere.
Pros
Cons
PredictIt is best suited to users who primarily follow politics and want to trade real money on political outcomes.
That can include:
Although U.S. politics dominates the platform, PredictIt can also list qualifying international political questions.
That makes politics-focused prediction market more accurate than describing PredictIt as exclusively a U.S.-politics platform.
PredictIt is not the right platform for every prediction-market user.
You may want to consider an alternative if:
PredictIt's niche is relatively clear: political prediction trading.
For this PredictIt review, ATS examined the platform's:
Because PredictIt's regulatory structure differs substantially from Kalshi and other CFTC-registered exchanges, we also distinguish between CFTC registration and CFTC staff no-action relief.
Last verified: August 11, 2026
PredictIt is a real-money prediction market primarily focused on political events.
Users trade contracts based on questions such as:
PredictIt has historically been associated with academic research into political forecasting and decision-making.
Its original regulatory framework involved Victoria University of Wellington operating a small-scale, not-for-profit prediction market for educational and research purposes.
In 2025, CFTC staff amended the framework to allow operations to transfer to the Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc., while retaining the conditional no-action structure.
PredictIt allows users to buy and sell shares tied to the outcome of a specific event.
Most contracts have two possible positions:
Shares generally trade between $0.01 and $0.99.
The market price can be interpreted as an approximate market-implied probability before accounting for fees, liquidity and trading friction.
For example:
A Yes share trading at $0.60 indicates that the market is roughly pricing the outcome around 60%.
If the event happens:
If the event does not happen:
Users do not necessarily have to wait for settlement.
If another trader is willing to take the opposite side, a position can potentially be sold beforehand.
Example | What Happens |
|---|---|
Buy Yes at $0.40 | You pay 40¢ per share |
Price rises to $0.60 | You may be able to sell before settlement |
Event happens | Yes settles at $1 |
Event doesn't happen | Yes settles at $0 |
Actual profitability also depends on PredictIt's fees and the available market price when entering or exiting.
PredictIt does not currently stand out for a standard new-user bonus.
As of our August 11, 2026 review, ATS did not identify a clearly advertised standard PredictIt welcome bonus or broadly available promo code comparable to sportsbook-style sign-up offers.
PredictIt Bonus Information | |
|---|---|
Welcome offer | No standard welcome bonus identified |
Promo code | No standard code identified |
U.S. access | Available to eligible users under PredictIt's regulatory framework |
Last verified | August 11, 2026 |
PredictIt's main selling point is therefore its political market selection rather than promotional value.
PredictIt's fee structure is one of its biggest disadvantages.
The two main direct costs are:
PredictIt charges 10% on profits from winning trades.
This fee reduces your trading profit before funds are withdrawn.
PredictIt also charges 5% when you withdraw money from the platform.
This is separate from the 10% trading-profit fee.
The withdrawal fee does not apply simply because a contract settles. It applies when funds are actually withdrawn from PredictIt.
Users should also consider:
Fee Type | PredictIt Cost | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
Profit fee | 10% of profits | Reduces gains from winning trades |
Withdrawal fee | 5% of amount withdrawn | Reduces cash received when withdrawing |
Spread | Varies | Thin markets can make entry and exit more expensive |
Deposit costs | Check current funding screen | Available methods and third-party costs can change |
For a deeper breakdown, see our PredictIt fees guide.
Suppose you buy:
100 Yes shares at $0.40
Your total initial position costs:
100 × $0.40 = $40
If the contract eventually settles at $1:
Total payout = $100
Your gross profit is:
$100 − $40 = $60
PredictIt's 10% profit fee would be:
$60 × 10% = $6
That leaves:
$54 in net trading profit before any withdrawal fee
If you later withdraw funds from PredictIt, the separate 5% withdrawal fee can also apply.
This combination is why PredictIt can become expensive for active users.
PredictIt is fundamentally a politics-focused platform.
Typical markets can include:
Market Category | PredictIt Fit |
|---|---|
U.S. elections | Strong |
International elections | Available selectively |
Nominations and confirmations | Strong |
Government appointments | Strong |
Legislative actions | Strong |
Executive actions | Strong |
Qualifying court decisions | Available |
Sports | Not offered |
Entertainment | Not a core market category |
Crypto markets | Not a core market category |
Weather markets | Better suited to broader alternatives |
The 2025 amended no-action framework focuses on elections and significant political questions.
Examples identified in the CFTC framework include:
The amendment also left the earlier CFTC no-action position concerning certain economic-indicator contracts unchanged.
For practical consumer purposes, however, PredictIt remains overwhelmingly a political prediction-market platform.
PredictIt is a legitimate real-money prediction market, but its regulatory status should be described carefully.
Unlike Kalshi, PredictIt does not operate as a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market.
Instead, it relies on conditional CFTC staff no-action relief.
The original framework came from CFTC Letter No. 14-130 in 2014.
In July 2025, the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued Letter No. 25-20, substantially amending the framework.
Under a no-action letter, CFTC staff state that they will not recommend enforcement action concerning specified regulatory requirements when the market operates within the conditions of the letter.
That is different from saying:
Those descriptions would overstate PredictIt's regulatory status.
A more accurate summary is:
PredictIt operates under conditional CFTC staff no-action relief for a research-oriented prediction market covering qualifying political events and related questions.
This page is informational and is not legal advice.
For more, read our full guide to PredictIt's legal status.
Older PredictIt articles often mention two limits:
Those numbers are no longer the correct current limits.
The CFTC's 2025 amendment eliminated the old restriction that limited participation in an individual contract to 5,000 traders.
The old $850 individual investment cap was also replaced.
Under the amended framework, the maximum investment by a single participant in a particular contract is tied to the Federal Election Campaign Act individual campaign contribution limit.
For the 2025–26 election cycle, that amount is:
$3,500
The limit is indexed for inflation and can change in future cycles.
Old Rule | Current Status |
|---|---|
5,000 traders per contract | Removed |
$850 individual investment cap | Replaced |
Current maximum investment | $3,500 per participant, per contract for the 2025–26 cycle |
Future limit | Adjusts with the applicable FECA contribution limit |
The removal of the 5,000-participant cap is potentially important for heavily traded election markets because popular contracts are no longer constrained by that old numerical ceiling.
PredictIt does not currently appear to offer a dedicated native iOS or Android trading app.
Instead, users access PredictIt through its website on mobile devices.
However, it would be outdated to describe the mobile experience solely on the basis of PredictIt's older interface.
In May 2026, PredictIt rolled out a redesigned mobile trading experience that included:
Users can browse markets, monitor positions and manage trades through the mobile website.
The lack of a native app can still matter to users who prefer an App Store or Google Play experience, but PredictIt's mobile website is more capable than older reviews may suggest.
Store | Native PredictIt Trading App |
|---|---|
Google Play | No dedicated app identified |
Apple App Store | No dedicated app identified |
PredictIt supports U.S. account funding and withdrawals, but available methods, minimum amounts and processing rules can change.
For that reason, users should rely on the current funding screen in their PredictIt account before depositing.
ATS does not recommend hard-coding claims such as a specific credit-card option or minimum deposit unless they have been verified against PredictIt's current account interface or support documentation.
The main cost to remember when withdrawing is PredictIt's:
5% withdrawal fee
Users should factor that cost into their overall return rather than looking only at the 10% profit fee.
PredictIt customer support can be reached at:
PredictIt also provides support and FAQ resources through its website covering topics such as:
For straightforward account questions, PredictIt's help resources are generally the logical first stop.
PredictIt is no longer the only serious U.S. prediction-market option.
However, these platforms operate under different structures.
Platform | Best For | Main Drawback |
|---|---|---|
PredictIt | Politics-focused prediction trading | High fees and narrow market scope |
Kalshi | Broad federally regulated U.S. event contracts | Exchange-style trading can be more complex for beginners |
Polymarket US | Broad U.S. prediction-market alternative | U.S. product should be distinguished from international Polymarket |
PredictIt is the most specialized of the three.
Its strength is political markets, particularly elections, nominations, government actions and related questions.
Its biggest drawbacks are:
Kalshi is a federally regulated Designated Contract Market and offers a much broader range of event contracts.
Depending on current availability and regulatory restrictions, categories can extend beyond politics into areas such as:
Kalshi is generally the stronger option for someone who wants one platform covering many prediction-market categories.
Polymarket needs more careful explanation in 2026 than older reviews provide.
The international Polymarket platform is known for crypto-based prediction-market infrastructure and a broad global market selection.
However, Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange operated through QCX LLC, a Designated Contract Market.
For that reason, it is no longer accurate to describe Polymarket simply as a crypto-native offshore alternative with uncertain U.S. access.
When comparing PredictIt with Polymarket, users should distinguish between:
The products, regulatory structure and available markets can differ.
For more detailed comparisons, see:
PredictIt remains a useful platform for a specific type of user:
Someone who primarily wants to trade political prediction markets.
Its strengths are specialization, simple Yes/No contracts and a long history in political forecasting markets.
Its disadvantages are harder to ignore in 2026.
PredictIt charges:
Its market selection is also much narrower than alternatives such as Kalshi.
The 2025 regulatory changes improved PredictIt's structure by eliminating the old 5,000-trader cap and replacing the $850 individual investment limit with a much higher FECA-linked threshold.
That makes the platform more flexible than it was under the original framework.
Still, PredictIt is best viewed as a specialized political prediction market rather than an all-purpose event-trading platform.
For casual political traders, it remains relevant.
For frequent traders or users who want sports, weather, finance, entertainment or a larger variety of event contracts, alternatives may offer a better fit.
PredictIt Fees 2026: Full Cost Structure, Profit Cuts & Trade Simulations
Is PredictIt Legal? Regulation, CFTC Status & U.S. Access 2026
PredictIt Liquidity & Execution Quality 2026: Slippage, Order Books & Market Behavior
Kalshi vs PredictIt | Polymarket vs PredictIt | Polymarket vs Kalshi
PredictIt operates under conditional CFTC staff no-action relief originally issued in 2014 and amended in 2025.
This means CFTC staff have agreed not to recommend certain enforcement action when the market operates within the conditions specified in the applicable no-action letters.
PredictIt is not a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market like Kalshi.
PredictIt's relationship with the CFTC is more limited than a formally registered exchange.
It operates under CFTC staff no-action relief rather than full DCM registration.
That distinction is important when comparing PredictIt with platforms such as Kalshi or Polymarket US.
PredictIt's old $850 limit was replaced in 2025.
For the 2025–26 cycle, the maximum investment by an individual participant in a particular contract is tied to the FECA contribution limit of $3,500.
Because the FECA limit is adjusted for inflation, this figure can change over time.
No.
The CFTC's 2025 amendment removed the old rule limiting an individual PredictIt contract to 5,000 traders.
PredictIt charges:
Users should also consider spreads, liquidity and execution prices.
PredictIt does not currently appear to offer a dedicated native iOS or Android trading app.
Users can trade through its mobile website.
PredictIt updated its mobile interface in May 2026 with features including new layouts, an improved order slip and integrated order-book access.
Available funding methods and limits can change.
Check the current deposit screen inside your PredictIt account for the available banking methods, minimum amounts and any applicable restrictions.
No.
PredictIt's current framework is focused on qualifying political events and significant political questions rather than sports event contracts.
Users looking for sports prediction markets should compare broader platforms such as Kalshi or Polymarket US.
Yes, selected international political markets can be available.
PredictIt's focus is politics rather than exclusively U.S. politics.
It depends on what you want.
PredictIt may be a better fit if:
Kalshi may be a better fit if:
The answer depends partly on which Polymarket product you mean.
PredictIt specializes in political markets and operates under CFTC staff no-action relief.
Polymarket also operates an international prediction-market platform, while Polymarket US operates separately as a CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange.
Users should compare the specific market, fees, liquidity and regulatory structure rather than treating the two Polymarket environments as identical.