CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Shakhtar come in ranked 23rd in the group phase table and AEK sit 17th after one match each, so this is already a meaningful game in the standings. Shakhtar's attack has produced 1 goal from 2 shots on target, while AEK have 1 goal from 4 shots on target and have not conceded yet. That split favors a compact contest with fewer clear chances than the market implies.
Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 AEK Athens fits the data best. Under 2.5 goals is the primary position because the market has priced a slightly more open match than the teams' opening attacking output suggests.
