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Iowa enters with clear statistical advantages on both ends. The Hawkeyes score 74.5 points per game, shoot 49.1% from the field, 35.7% from three, and 77.0% at the line, while allowing only 66.3 points per game. Their offensive rating of 116.6 and defensive rating of 98.5 show a profile built on efficient offense and strong resistance to opponent scoring. That combination usually creates separation without requiring a frantic pace. Lipscomb is a more dangerous offensive team than its underdog label suggests. The Bisons score 79.7 points per game, shoot 46.2% overall, 36.2% from three, and 75.4% from the line, while posting a 105.9 offensive rating. But they face a steep step up in class here, and the matchup numbers suggest Iowa can compress that offense. Lipscomb’s scoring is good enough to compete, yet the Hawkeyes’ defense and the overall talent gap point to the visitors settling into a lower output than their season average.
Iowa should win convincingly behind the stronger defense and the more efficient half-court offense, but the cleaner value is on Lipscomb staying below its team scoring expectation. The projected score is Iowa Hawkeyes 84, Lipscomb Bisons 59, which supports a home win and a lower-scoring Bisons performance than the market is asking for.
