Prediction
- ●Recommended Position: Tulane Green Wave -7.5
- ●Model Win Probability: 55.8%
- ●Market Implied Probability: 52.4%
- ●Model Edge: 3.4%
- ●Entry Threshold: -117
- ●Model Confidence: 63/100
Model Projection
- ●Projected Score: Tulane Green Wave 77, Tenn-Martin Skyhawks 68
- ●Projected Total: 145.0
Why This Position Stands Out
Tulane has the cleaner overall profile, with a stronger efficiency base and the better defensive numbers in the data available. The Green Wave’s adjusted efficiency and net rating are both positive, and their defense is well enough structured to keep a lower-tier opponent from staying close for 40 minutes. UT Martin brings solid rebounding and a respectable scoring baseline, but its turnover rate is high enough that a more complete team can create separation through extra possessions and easier looks in transition.
Matchup Overview
Tulane enters with a clear talent and efficiency advantage, and the market has shown a split between books that lean to a shorter home price and others that are more aggressive. UT Martin has recent results that show it can score in bunches, but the Skyhawks also have a profile that can wobble when the defense forces the game into half-court possessions. Tulane’s better shot quality and defensive consistency make the home side the more dependable position.
