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Florida Int'l’s opening-game numbers show a team that can score efficiently and rebound well, with 101.0 points per game, 48.1% shooting, 34.3% from three, 93.8% at the line, 58.0 points allowed per game, 50.0 rebounds per game, a 102.0 offensive rating, and a 105.7 defensive rating. That is a strong offensive start, but the defense still leaves room for an opponent to hang around. West Florida’s available data points to a high-scoring team with 127.0 points per game, 58.0% shooting, 45.7% from three, 81.0% at the line, 85.0 points allowed per game, 50.0 rebounds per game, a 168.3 offensive rating, and a 55.7 defensive rating. The small sample size calls for caution, but the offensive output is enough to support a closer game than a wide market margin suggests.
Florida Int'l is the more complete team and should control the game, but the projected margin is smaller than what the spread market is asking for. West Florida’s scoring profile gives it a path to stay competitive long enough to cover the number, even if FIU finishes with the win. The final projection is Florida Int'l 83, West Florida 71, with the underdog side offering the best value.
