COLLEGE FOOTBALL
BYU enters with the better recent profile, covering in 6 of 7 games and posting a 14.6-point average margin. The Cougars are also producing 6.3 yards per play while holding opponents to 4.7 yards per play, which is a strong sign of balance. Arizona State has been less dependable against the number at 3-4 ATS, and its defense has given up 29.9 points per game and 5.4 yards per play. That combination makes it harder for the Sun Devils to keep pace if BYU controls the line of scrimmage and finishes drives.
BYU has the stronger statistical base and the better season-long results against the number, so the home side is projected to win and separate late. The Cougars' efficiency edge on offense, combined with a defense allowing only 18.6 points per game, supports a comfortable home win. Arizona State has enough offensive talent to score some, but the Sun Devils' defensive numbers point to trouble matching BYU possession for possession. Final projection: BYU 34, Arizona State 17.
