COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Missouri has been the steadier side this season, with 31.1 points per game, 430.3 total yards per game, and 6.3 yards per play on offense, while its defense has allowed just 19.6 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. Arkansas has been more volatile, averaging 21.0 points and 343.0 yards per game on offense at 5.0 yards per play, while giving up 26.7 points and 357.7 yards per game. The Razorbacks have shown enough passing production through KJ Jackson to stay competitive in stretches, but the run game has been less efficient and the defense has struggled to consistently get stops against balanced offenses. Missouri’s more complete profile makes it the better side overall, while Arkansas’s home setting gives it a chance to keep the score in a more moderate range.
Missouri should control the game and leave with a win, but the cleanest value is on Missouri’s team total under because Arkansas has enough defensive resistance at home to keep the Tigers from running away on the scoreboard. A projected final of Missouri 30, Arkansas 17 fits the matchup, supports the road favorite, and keeps the game below the market total while staying within a realistic conference-game script.
