COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Air Force enters with a 4-3 ATS mark and a 3-4 over record, while UConn has been a strong spread team at 5-1-1 ATS with the same 3-4 over record. On the field, Air Force has allowed 20.9 points per game and 296.4 total yards per game, compared with UConn’s 23.9 points and 392.3 total yards allowed per game. UConn has been better in yards per play on offense at 6.0, but Air Force’s defense has been the cleaner unit in scoring terms, and that gives the Falcons the slight home edge in a game expected to stay close.
Air Force has the slight edge at home in a game that profiles as close, with the Falcons’ defensive numbers and market support pointing to a narrow win. UConn’s efficiency keeps this from being a big separation spot, but the Huskies have given up more points and more yardage, which makes the home side the better position. My projection is Air Force Falcons 27, UConn Huskies 23, with Air Force covering the short spread in a game that stays just below a mid-50s total.
