NBA
Dallas enters with a 6-3 ATS mark and a stronger defensive efficiency than Indiana, while also allowing fewer points per game. The Mavericks are scoring 112.1 points per game on 46.4% shooting and are holding opponents to 110.9 points per game. Indiana is scoring 111.2 points per game but allowing 114.2, and its recent offensive efficiency has slipped enough to raise concern on the road. The Pacers do have a small edge in field goal percentage, but Dallas owns the better free throw rate, better rebounding, and the more stable overall two-way profile.
Dallas is projected to edge Indiana at home, with the Mavericks winning 114-109. The home side’s stronger defensive profile, better rebound rate, and cleaner recent spread record create a modest edge against a Pacers team that has allowed more points and has been less reliable on totals and side results. The projected final score supports a Dallas cover and a game total landing just above the low-220s.
