NFL
Chicago comes in with a strong offensive profile at 26.75 points per game, 387.25 yards per game, and 5.39 yards per play, while allowing 20.0 points per game and 305.75 yards per game. Tampa Bay has been tougher on defense, giving up 18.88 points per game and only 4.92 yards per play allowed, but its offense has been far less explosive through the air at 131.38 passing yards per game. The Bears’ 6-2 ATS record stands out against Tampa Bay’s 3-5 ATS mark, while both teams sit at 4-4 to the over, suggesting the spread market has been more reliable than the total for Chicago and that Tampa Bay has been harder to trust against the number.
Chicago should control enough of this game at home to come away with the win, and the better scoring angle is Tampa Bay staying below its expected offensive output. The Bears have the stronger overall offense, the cleaner yardage profile, and the better point production, while Tampa Bay’s pass game has been too limited to trust for a big scoring night. A final score in the Bears’ favor looks most likely, with Tampa Bay finishing short of its scoring expectation.
