Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction - November 1, 2026

Introduction

Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction for the Premier League at Anfield points to both teams finding the net and a tight game. Our model expects Arsenal to avoid defeat in a 1-1 type result, with the visitors carrying the cleaner underlying profile. Arsenal sit second and Liverpool fourth, but the underlying numbers are closer than the table suggests: Arsenal’s 14.93 xG and 8.12 xGA across eight matches show stronger balance than their 13 goals scored and 5 allowed, while Liverpool’s 11.83 xG and 10.70 xGA point to a softer defensive base than their results imply.

Prediction

• ●Recommended Position: Both Teams to Score: Yes (-138, Polymarket)
• ●Model Probability: 62.0%
• ●Market Probability: 58.0%
• ●Model Edge: +4.0 pp
• ●Entry Threshold: -143
• ●Model Confidence: 70/100

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal
• ●Projected Total: 2.2 goals

Why This Position Stands Out

The pricing case is clean enough for a qualifying BTTS position. At -138, the market asks for a 58.0% hit rate, while our model is at 62.0%, leaving a 4.0-point edge and a playable threshold of -143 or better. Arsenal are averaging 1.87 xG and 1.02 xGA per match, while Liverpool are at 1.48 xG and 1.34 xGA. Those are solid attacking rates on both sides, and both clubs are also above four shots on target per match. The main risk is that Arsenal’s defense is still the better unit on paper, and that can drag this game toward a cleaner away win or a lower-scoring stalemate. Arsenal have conceded only 0.63 goals per match, which is better than their xGA rate and leaves room for defensive regression to help the yes side, but it also shows how hard they are to break down. If Liverpool’s finishing stays below expectation, the chance of one team blanking rises fast.