PREMIER LEAGUE
Across eight league matches, Aston Villa sit 9th at 3-2-3, while Fulham are 15th at 2-2-4. The expected-goals picture is closer than the table, but it still points to Villa’s better home chance: Villa have 9.56 xG and 15.34 xGA, while Fulham have 12.59 xG and 12.22 xGA. Per match, that means Villa are at 1.20 xG and 1.92 xGA, while Fulham sit at 1.57 xG and 1.53 xGA. The shot profile also supports a narrow home edge rather than a free-flowing shootout. Villa average 3.0 shots on target per match, versus 4.5 for Fulham, yet Villa’s chance quality has been steadier at home in the market’s view. Fulham’s attack is the bigger xG overachiever on paper, but Villa’s goal output is less likely to slide far from its baseline. That’s why the full-time result leans home, with a scoreline that leaves room for Fulham to threaten but not quite flip the game.
Our Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction is Aston Villa 2-1 Fulham. We like Aston Villa at the current entry because the model edge clears the required margin, and the threshold stays playable up to -108. Fulham’s stronger xG than goals is the main regression note, but Villa’s home edge still drives the call.
