SERIE A
Roma’s 5-2-0 record and third-place standing make them look like a front-runner, but the expected-goals picture is even cleaner. Their 18.65 xG and 7.92 xGA translate to elite attacking and top-tier prevention over seven matches, while Cagliari sit on a 4-1-2 line with only 8.99 xG and 12.99 xGA. The visitors have outperformed defensively, yet their attack has lagged behind the results. Roma’s shot volume also helps the home case. They average 6.0 shots on target per match, compared with 4.0 for Cagliari, and that gap matches the projection of a controlled home win. Roma have scored 16 times from 18.65 xG, while Cagliari have only six goals from 8.99 xG, so the finishing profile still leans to the hosts. That same split is why the full-time result market lines up with a 2-0 lean rather than a narrow upset.
Our AS Roma vs Cagliari prediction is AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari. We like Roma to win, and the playable entry stays live until the market shortens past the threshold below. The key driver is Roma’s stronger xG and shot-on-target profile, plus Cagliari’s modest scoring output.
