Noah Gugnon vs Kody Steele Prediction - October 24, 2026

Prediction

• ●Recommended Position: Kody Steele moneyline
• ●Model Win Probability: 64%
• ●Market Implied Probability: 60%
• ●Model Edge: 4%
• ●Entry Threshold: -178
• ●Model Confidence: 70/100

Model Projection

• ●Projected Winner: Kody Steele
• ●Projected Method of Victory: Submission

Why This Position Stands Out

Kody Steele brings the cleaner UFC résumé and the more proven top-end skill set into this matchup. He has already shown he can win in the Octagon, and his recent UFC work suggests a fighter who can mix pace, grappling pressure, and opportunistic finishing once he gets into advantageous positions. That matters here because Noah Gugnon enters with less established UFC-level evidence, so the market can lean too hard on his broader regional résumé rather than what has already translated against UFC competition. The price on Steele can still lag behind his actual chances because newer UFC names are often shaded on reputation, especially when one side has a fresh win or a stylistic appeal to the public. Steele’s grappling background also gives him a practical route to winning rounds or ending the fight if Gugnon gives up reactive scrambles. Gugnon is live, but Steele’s combination of UFC experience, finishing upside, and more reliable read on how his style holds up at this level creates the better value side.