WNBA
Dallas enters with a 26-17 record, a 7-3 mark over its last 10, and a recent offensive profile built around 89.1 points per game and 46.6% shooting. Seattle has struggled badly at 8-35, has lost four straight, and is averaging 82.0 points per game on 42.2% shooting. The Storm’s 14.2 turnovers per game and 100.3 offensive rating have been major issues, while Dallas has been far better at protecting the ball and generating efficient scoring. Seattle’s defense has also allowed 88.6 points per game, but Dallas has not been dominant enough defensively to completely separate if the game slows at all.
Dallas is the better team overall, but this number is asking too much of Seattle’s ability to get blown out at home. The Wings should control the game, yet Seattle’s home setting and the market’s tendency to overprice a strong favorite create value on the points. My projection is Dallas 88, Seattle 81, which points to a Dallas win but a Seattle cover and a total that stays below the main number.
