Updated July 20, 2026
The best record in the National League rolls into Citizens Bank Park on Monday night, but Philadelphia is the team getting the nod from oddsmakers. The Los Angeles Dodgers arrive at 63-37 and comfortably atop the NL West, while the Phillies sit at 55-45 and 3.0 games back in the NL East. Yet this series opener is really a story about two pitchers: All-Star left-hander Cristopher Sánchez for Philadelphia against a homer-prone Emmet Sheehan for Los Angeles.
Sánchez has been one of the better left-handed starters in baseball this season, posting an 11-4 record with a 2.62 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and 144 strikeouts against just 25 walks across 127.1 innings. Sheehan, by contrast, is 4-6 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, and he has already surrendered 15 home runs in only 82.1 innings. Against a Philadelphia lineup that has hammered mistakes all season and inside a park that plays small to the pull side, that home run rate is the single biggest red flag in this game for LA.
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Total Parlay Odds: +355
The reasoning here is straightforward. Sánchez is averaging over a strikeout per inning this season and has faced a right-handed-heavy Los Angeles lineup that has chased his changeup before, which supports the strikeout number on its own. Pairing the Phillies moneyline with the under fits the same theory that's driving the pick: a dominant left-hander limiting damage keeps the total in check even if Philadelphia's bullpen, which has been stretched by injuries to Tanner Banks and Lou Trivino, has to cover a few extra outs.
Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run: +184 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Schwarber leads the league with 33 home runs and has punished fly-ball pitchers all year, and Sheehan fits that description about as well as any starter Philadelphia has faced recently, having already allowed 15 homers in just 82.1 innings. Citizens Bank Park's short porches only add to the appeal. A single-game home run prop on a hitter with this kind of raw power, at plus odds, in a favorable park against a homer-prone starter, is a reasonable price to take a swing on.
Category | Dodgers | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
Batting Average | .260 | .236 |
OPS | .772 | .701 |
wOBA | .338 | .307 |
wRC+ | 113 | 91 |
Team ERA | 3.49 | 4.21 |
xFIP | 3.86 | 3.57 |
I want to call your attention to the differences between team ERA and xFIP for these two teams. A look at the raw team ERA for both teams would suggest that the Dodgers have a much better pitching staff. But Philly's xFIP is far superior to that of the Dodgers, which is a much better barometer of true pitching ability. Expect that to make a difference tonight, especially with Sanchez on the mound for the home team.
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