Jay Sanin on August 11, 2024
James Paxton projections, stats and prop bet odds for Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox on Aug 11, 2024
Earned Runs Prop Bet Odds:
The Houston Astros projected offense ranks as the 4th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
Jordan Baker profiles as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be umping in today's game.
Connor Wong, the Red Sox's expected catcher today, profiles as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Fenway Park projects as the #3 field in Major League Baseball for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest.
Among all major league parks, the 2nd-tallest average fence height are at Fenway Park.
James Paxton has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 8 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.
Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics in all categories, and James Paxton will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
James Paxton was in good form in his previous start and gave up 2 ER.
James Paxton's curveball usage has increased by 11.1% from last year to this one (19.3% to 30.4%) .
James Paxton is projected to have 3.3 Earned Runs in todays game.
Pitching Outs Prop Bet Odds:
Among all major league parks, the 2nd-tallest average fence height are at Fenway Park.
James Paxton has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 8 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.
Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics in all categories, and James Paxton will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
James Paxton was in good form in his previous start and gave up 2 ER.
James Paxton's curveball usage has increased by 11.1% from last year to this one (19.3% to 30.4%) .
The Houston Astros projected offense ranks as the 4th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
Jordan Baker profiles as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be umping in today's game.
Connor Wong, the Red Sox's expected catcher today, profiles as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Fenway Park projects as the #3 field in Major League Baseball for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest.
James Paxton is projected to have 15.5 Pitching Outs in todays game.
Strikeouts Prop Bet Odds:
Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which tends to lead to worse offense.
James Paxton has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 8 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.
Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics in all categories, and James Paxton will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
James Paxton's curveball usage has increased by 11.1% from last year to this one (19.3% to 30.4%) .
James Paxton has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 6.59 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.84 — a 1.25 K/9 deviation.
Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Houston Astros with a 19.2% underlying K%.
Jordan Baker profiles as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be umping in today's game.
Connor Wong, the Red Sox's expected catcher today, profiles as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 8th-worst stadium in the majors for strikeouts.
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest weather of the day at 81°.
James Paxton is projected to have 3.9 Strikeouts in todays game.
