Jay Sanin on January 9, 2025
Brian Robinson projections and prop bets for Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Jan 12, 2025
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
A throwing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a -3-point underdog in this game.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Washington Commanders this year (a monstrous 59.8 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: most in football.
This year, the poor Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered a whopping 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 5th-most in the league.
The model projects the Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Brian Robinson's 12.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year marks a noteworthy reduction in his receiving talent over last year's 24.0 rate.
Brian Robinson's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 90.4% to 83.4%.
Brian Robinson's pass-game efficiency has declined this year, accumulating a measly 6.73 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.86 rate last year.
Brian Robinson's 8.15 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a noteworthy decrease in his efficiency in space over last season's 11.3% rate.
Brian Robinson is projected to have 11.1 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Washington Commanders this year (a monstrous 59.8 per game on average).
Our trusted projections expect Brian Robinson to total 13.1 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Brian Robinson has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (58.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Tampa Bay's collection of DEs has been very bad this year, profiling as the worst in football. in football.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a -3-point underdog in this game.
With a 37.5% rate of rushing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 6th-least run-heavy offense in football has been the Commanders.
After making up 60.4% of his team's rush attempts last year, Brian Robinson has had a smaller role in the rushing attack this year, now comprising only 48.0%.
Opposing teams have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 100.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
Brian Robinson is projected to have 53.8 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Washington Commanders this year (a monstrous 59.8 per game on average).
Our trusted projections expect Brian Robinson to total 13.1 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Tampa Bay's collection of DEs has been very bad this year, profiling as the worst in football. in football.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a -3-point underdog in this game.
With a 37.5% rate of rushing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 6th-least run-heavy offense in football has been the Commanders.
After making up 60.4% of his team's rush attempts last year, Brian Robinson has had a smaller role in the rushing attack this year, now comprising only 48.0%.
Brian Robinson is projected to have 12.8 Carries in this weeks game.
