Jay Sanin on December 25, 2024
Demario Douglas projections and prop bets for Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots on Dec 28, 2024
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4-point underdogs.
Demario Douglas's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 64.1% to 79.2%.
Demario Douglas profiles as one of the leading WRs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging an outstanding 5.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 80th percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency against WRs this year, yielding 8.51 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-most in football.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 55.2% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Demario Douglas has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (29.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
In regards to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the New England Patriots ranks as the worst in the league this year.
The Chargers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.88 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.
Demario Douglas is projected to have 36.1 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
