Jay Sanin on December 5, 2024
Derek Carr projections and prop bets for New Orleans Saints at New York Giants on Dec 8, 2024
Touchdown Passes Prop Bet Odds:
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in the NFL versus the New York Giants defense this year (75.6% Adjusted Completion%).
The New York Giants safeties project as the 9th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
This game's line implies a running game script for the Saints, who are favored by 5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 52.3% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in football in the red zone (47.5% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New Orleans Saints.
The leading projections forecast Derek Carr to throw 32.9 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.2 per game) this year.
Derek Carr is projected to have 1 Touchdown Passes in this weeks game.
Passing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in the NFL versus the New York Giants defense this year (75.6% Adjusted Completion%).
The New York Giants safeties project as the 9th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
This game's line implies a running game script for the Saints, who are favored by 5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 52.3% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast Derek Carr to throw 32.9 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.2 per game) this year.
Derek Carr's 196.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year indicates a significant reduction in his throwing ability over last year's 221.0 figure.
Derek Carr is projected to have 208.4 Passing Yards in this weeks game.
Interceptions Prop Bet Odds:
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have intercepted 0.00 targets per game this year, ranking as the worst defense in football by this metric
The New York Giants safeties project as the 9th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
This game's line implies a running game script for the Saints, who are favored by 5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 52.3% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast Derek Carr to throw 32.9 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.2 per game) this year.
In regards to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.
Derek Carr is projected to have 0.4 Interceptions in this weeks game.
