Jay Sanin on October 20, 2024
Trey Sermon projections and prop bets for Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts on Oct 20, 2024
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
This game's spread implies a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 3 points.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to run on 38.9% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The model projects the Colts to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
In this week's game, Trey Sermon is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs with 13.8 rush attempts.
The predictive model expects Trey Sermon to be a much smaller part of his team's running game in this contest (10.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (24.5% in games he has played).
The Colts have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Trey Sermon's ground effectiveness has diminished this season, notching a measly 2.71 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.40 rate last season.
Trey Sermon is projected to have 53.7 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
This game's spread implies a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 3 points.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to run on 38.9% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The model projects the Colts to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
In this week's game, Trey Sermon is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs with 13.8 rush attempts.
The predictive model expects Trey Sermon to be a much smaller part of his team's running game in this contest (10.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (24.5% in games he has played).
The Colts have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Trey Sermon is projected to have 13.4 Carries in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The model projects the Colts to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Trey Sermon has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (26.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (9.8%).
The Indianapolis O-line profiles as the best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Trey Sermon has posted substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (7.0) this season than he did last season (2.0).
This game's spread implies a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 3 points.
The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Colts have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Dolphins, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.4 per game) this year.
This year, the fierce Dolphins defense has surrendered a paltry 21.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the fewest in the NFL.
Trey Sermon is projected to have 11.1 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
The model projects the Colts to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Trey Sermon has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (26.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (9.8%).
The Indianapolis O-line profiles as the best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Trey Sermon's receiving skills have been refined this season, compiling 1.4 adjusted catches compared to a mere 0.4 last season.
This game's spread implies a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 3 points.
The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Colts have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Dolphins, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.4 per game) this year.
Trey Sermon is projected to have 1.5 Receptions in this weeks game.
