Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Prediction 1/24/23
Updated November 4, 2026
Updated November 4, 2026
The Minnesota Wild travel to Amalie Arena on Tuesday, January 24, 2023, to face the Tampa Bay Lightning in one of 11 NHL games on the schedule.
Tampa Bay enters the matchup looking to make another deep playoff run after reaching three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals. Minnesota also has postseason ambitions and hopes to establish itself as a serious contender in the Western Conference.
The Lightning are the favorites, but the Wild have enjoyed considerable success in recent meetings between these teams. With Minnesota available at plus money, there could be value in backing the visitors.
Our Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction is Wild moneyline (+125).
For current games and analysis, visit our NHL picks and NHL matchup predictions.
The Lightning opened as the favorites for this January 24 matchup, with Tampa Bay's strong home record helping explain the market's confidence.
Here are the betting lines available at the time of the original prediction.
Betting market | Historical odds |
|---|---|
Minnesota Wild moneyline | +125 |
Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline | -145 |
Total goals | 6 |
Over 6 goals | -125 |
These are historical odds recorded on January 24, 2023. They are included for reference and are no longer available.
Tampa Bay's -145 moneyline reflects its status as the favorite, but Minnesota's +125 price presents an interesting opportunity.
The Wild have a strong recent record against the Lightning, including a convincing victory earlier in January.
The Pick: Minnesota Wild Moneyline (+125)
Minnesota enters this game as the underdog despite having several reasons for optimism.
The Wild have matched up well against Tampa Bay in recent seasons, and their 5-1 victory over the Lightning earlier this month demonstrated their ability to contain one of the NHL's most dangerous offenses.
Tampa Bay has been excellent at home, but its recent road trip ended with consecutive defeats. Minnesota, meanwhile, has had two days to recover after a difficult stretch in Florida.
At +125, the Wild offer the better value in a matchup that could be considerably closer than the odds suggest.
1. Minnesota has enjoyed success against Tampa Bay
The Wild have consistently caused problems for the Lightning in recent meetings. Entering this game, Minnesota has not lost to Tampa Bay in regulation since 2017.
That record provides a compelling argument for considering the underdog.
2. The Wild dominated the previous meeting
Minnesota defeated Tampa Bay 5-1 earlier in January.
The Wild controlled that matchup and limited the Lightning's opportunities, showing they can compete with Tampa Bay's talented roster.
3. The moneyline offers attractive value
Tampa Bay is priced at -145, while Minnesota is available at +125.
The Lightning deserve respect for their home performances, but the difference in price looks substantial considering Minnesota's recent success in this matchup.
The Wild don't need to dominate to make this a worthwhile selection. They simply need to find a way to win.
Minnesota arrives in Tampa Bay looking to recover after consecutive losses to the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers.
Those defeats dropped the Wild to 1-2 on their current road trip.
Defensive problems were particularly concerning.
Minnesota allowed five goals in each loss, an unusually poor return for a team that has generally defended well this season.
The Wild enter Tuesday's matchup averaging approximately 2.9 goals allowed per game, so their recent performances represent a departure from their usual standard.
Improving defensively will be essential against a Lightning team with considerable offensive talent.
Discipline could play a decisive role in this matchup.
The Wild have a 10-3-1 record when committing fewer penalties than their opponents.
That trend matters against Tampa Bay, which enters the game with one of the NHL's most productive power plays.
Giving the Lightning repeated opportunities with the extra skater would make Minnesota's task significantly more difficult.
The Wild need to limit unnecessary penalties and keep the game at even strength as much as possible.
Minnesota has enjoyed two days of rest ahead of Tuesday's game.
That break should help after a demanding stretch of road games.
The Wild have also performed well in similar situations, winning 15 of their previous 22 games when playing with two days of rest.
The additional recovery time could be particularly valuable for a team looking to regain its defensive structure.
Marc-Andre Fleury is the expected starting goaltender for Minnesota.
The veteran last played on January 19, when he conceded five goals against Carolina.
Despite that disappointing outing, Fleury has considerable experience in important games and should benefit from the additional rest.
His numbers entering this matchup are:
Minnesota will need Fleury to produce a stronger performance against Tampa Bay's dangerous attack.
Tampa Bay returns home after a five-game road trip that ended with consecutive losses.
The Lightning opened that trip with three victories before losing to the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames.
Their performances in Alberta exposed some defensive weaknesses, with Tampa Bay struggling to contain both opponents.
However, the Lightning have been considerably stronger at Amalie Arena.
Home-ice advantage is one of the main reasons Tampa Bay enters Tuesday's matchup as the favorite.
The Lightning have won 17 home games this season while suffering just five losses.
Their road performances have been less convincing, with Tampa Bay sitting only slightly above .500 away from Amalie Arena.
Tuesday also presents an opportunity for the Lightning to extend their home winning streak to ten games.
That form makes Tampa Bay a difficult opponent, even for a Minnesota team that has enjoyed success in recent head-to-head meetings.
The question is whether the Lightning can maintain their strong home performances after a disappointing finish to their road trip.
Special teams represent one of Tampa Bay's clearest advantages.
The Lightning have scored 42 power-play goals this season, establishing themselves among the league's strongest teams with the extra skater.
Minnesota's penalty kill ranks 16th entering this matchup.
That difference could become important if the Wild spend too much time in the penalty box.
Tampa Bay has enough offensive talent to punish mistakes, so Minnesota's discipline will be crucial.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start for Tampa Bay.
The Lightning's number-one goaltender conceded four goals in each of his team's recent losses to Edmonton and Calgary.
Returning home presents an opportunity for Vasilevskiy to regain his usual form.
His numbers entering Tuesday's matchup include:
Vasilevskiy remains one of the NHL's most accomplished goaltenders, and his presence gives Tampa Bay a significant advantage in net.
Minnesota will need to create quality scoring opportunities rather than rely on a high volume of low-percentage shots.
Three areas stand out when assessing this matchup.
Minnesota's success against Tampa Bay is difficult to ignore.
The Wild won the previous meeting 5-1 and have avoided a regulation defeat against the Lightning since 2017.
Although historical results cannot guarantee another victory, they suggest Minnesota is comfortable facing this opponent.
The Lightning have been outstanding at Amalie Arena.
Their strong home record and nine-game winning streak make them worthy favorites.
However, Minnesota's ability to compete with Tampa Bay makes the +125 underdog price appealing.
Tampa Bay has the stronger power play and an elite starting goaltender in Vasilevskiy.
Minnesota needs to stay disciplined and receive a solid performance from Fleury.
If the Wild can limit Tampa Bay's power-play opportunities, their chances of winning improve considerably.
Tampa Bay's home record makes the Lightning a dangerous opponent, and Vasilevskiy gives them an advantage in goal.
However, Minnesota has consistently played well against Tampa Bay and dominated the teams' previous meeting earlier this month.
The Wild also enter this game with additional rest, which could help them recover after their recent defensive struggles.
At +125, Minnesota presents an appealing underdog opportunity.
→ Our Take: Minnesota Wild moneyline (+125) is our pick for January 24, 2023. Tampa Bay's home form deserves respect, but the Wild's recent success in this matchup makes the plus-money price worth considering.
Historical Pick: Minnesota Wild Moneyline (+125)
This prediction was originally published on January 24, 2023. All statistics, odds and team analysis reflect information available before that game. For current predictions, visit our NHL betting picks, NHL matchups and NHL odds.
Updated November 4, 2026
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