Updated July 2, 2026
PredictIt and Polymarket US both let Americans trade contracts based on real-world outcomes, but the two platforms currently serve very different purposes.
PredictIt is primarily focused on politics and government-related events, operating as a small-scale prediction market under CFTC no-action relief. Polymarket US is a CFTC-regulated exchange currently focused primarily on sports event contracts, with additional categories such as politics, finance, economics, and culture announced for future expansion.
There is also an important distinction between Polymarket US and Polymarket.com. U.S. residents cannot trade through the international Polymarket.com platform and instead must use the separate Polymarket US product.
The better choice therefore depends largely on what you want to trade. PredictIt currently makes more sense for political markets, while Polymarket US is the more relevant option for sports-focused event trading.
PredictIt is currently the stronger choice for users primarily interested in elections, government actions, and other political events.
Polymarket US is better suited to users who want sports-based prediction contracts and are comfortable using a central limit order book with market-based pricing.
How we compare platforms: Regulation, market selection, fees, U.S. availability, position limits, liquidity, trading setup, resolution rules, and user experience.
New to the category? Start with our guide to how prediction markets work before choosing a platform.
Feature | PredictIt | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|
Primary focus | Politics, elections, government, and related events | Currently primarily sports event contracts |
Regulatory framework | Small-scale market operating under CFTC no-action relief | CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market |
U.S. access | Built for eligible U.S. users | Separate U.S. product for eligible U.S. users |
Fees | 10% fee on profits plus 5% withdrawal fee | Price-dependent trading fees; takers pay fees while makers may receive rebates |
Position limits | Per-contract investment limit tied to the federal individual campaign-contribution limit | Account, instrument, exposure, and risk limits may apply |
Trading setup | Focused political prediction-market platform | Central limit order book |
Settlement | Market-specific rules and platform procedures | Exchange settlement according to predefined contract rules |
Best suited to | Users primarily interested in political markets | Users primarily interested in sports prediction contracts and exchange-style trading |
Our comparison looks beyond the number of markets listed on each platform.
We considered each platform's regulatory framework, current market selection, published fee structure, U.S. availability, position limits, trading mechanics, liquidity, and resolution process.
We also focus on the practical questions users should ask before placing a trade:
Important: Prediction-market products, market availability, fees, and regulations can change quickly. Always check the latest platform rules and eligibility requirements before depositing funds or placing a trade.
Regulation is one of the most important differences between PredictIt and Polymarket US.
PredictIt operates under CFTC no-action relief for a small-scale, not-for-profit prediction market offered to U.S. persons.
In July 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission amended the PredictIt no-action framework. Among other changes, the amendment removed the previous 5,000-trader limit for individual contracts and updated the investment-limit framework.
PredictIt's permitted market scope remains concentrated around political questions.
These may include subjects such as:
PredictIt therefore occupies a fairly specialized part of the prediction-market industry.
Polymarket US operates under a different framework.
QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, is registered with the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market (DCM).
That makes Polymarket US fundamentally different from PredictIt's no-action-letter model.
It is also important to distinguish Polymarket US from Polymarket.com.
Polymarket.com is the international version of the platform. U.S. residents are not permitted to deposit or trade through Polymarket.com and instead use the separate Polymarket US product.
The two should not be treated as interchangeable platforms.
For more information, read our guide to whether Polymarket is legal in the U.S..
The two platforms also use very different fee structures.
PredictIt charges a 10% fee on profits and a 5% withdrawal fee.
The profit fee applies to profits generated through winning trades rather than your original investment.
Users then pay a separate withdrawal fee when removing money from the platform.
For frequent traders, those costs can have a meaningful effect on overall returns.
For example, a trader should not compare a PredictIt contract with another platform purely by looking at the displayed contract price. The eventual profit fee and withdrawal fee also need to be considered.
Polymarket US uses an exchange-style trading fee model rather than PredictIt's profit-based structure.
Under the current published Polymarket US fee schedule, takers pay price-dependent trading fees while makers can receive rebates for providing liquidity to the order book.
The amount paid therefore depends partly on:
This is different from the international Polymarket.com fee structure and should not be confused with it.
Polymarket US's trading model can potentially produce lower transaction costs in some situations, but there is no simple rule that makes one platform universally cheaper.
The spread and available liquidity also matter.
Before entering a market:
A small trading fee does not necessarily make a trade cheap if the spread is wide or the order book is thin.
Market selection is currently one of the clearest differences between PredictIt and Polymarket US.
PredictIt specializes in political and government-related prediction markets.
Users can find markets relating to elections, politicians, nominations, government decisions, legislation, and other political developments.
That narrow focus can actually be an advantage.
Someone specifically looking for U.S. political prediction markets does not need to browse through hundreds of unrelated sports or entertainment markets.
Polymarket US currently focuses primarily on sports event contracts.
Its U.S. product supports markets covering sports such as:
Polymarket US has also indicated that additional market categories, including areas such as politics, culture, finance, and economics, are planned.
That distinction matters because the much larger selection of politics, crypto, finance, culture, technology, weather, and world-event markets commonly associated with Polymarket.com should not automatically be attributed to the U.S. version of Polymarket.
As things currently stand, the comparison is therefore fairly straightforward:
PredictIt is the more relevant platform for political markets. Polymarket US is the more relevant platform for sports event contracts.
PredictIt's small-scale framework includes a defined investment limit.
The CFTC's July 2025 amendment tied the maximum amount an individual participant can invest in a particular PredictIt contract to the federal individual campaign-contribution limit per election, per candidate.
The CFTC cited $3,500 as the applicable amount at the time of the amendment.
However, that federal limit can be adjusted periodically, so $3,500 should not be presented as a permanent PredictIt limit.
The important point is that PredictIt operates with a defined per-contract investment cap as part of its small-scale framework.
Polymarket US does not use the same fixed small-scale investment framework as PredictIt.
However, that does not mean users can necessarily take unlimited positions.
Polymarket US documentation allows for controls including:
Practical trading size is also constrained by the liquidity available in the individual market.
A trader may theoretically be allowed to build a large position but still receive a poor price if there is not enough depth in the order book.
Liquidity is one of the most important variables in any prediction market.
It affects:
It is usually misleading to label an entire platform simply "liquid" or "illiquid."
Liquidity varies by market.
A major presidential election contract on PredictIt may attract substantially more activity than a niche political question.
Similarly, a high-profile sports contract on Polymarket US may have considerably more order-book depth than a less popular event.
Before trading, look beyond the displayed probability.
Check:
A displayed probability only becomes actionable if you can actually trade the amount you want near that price.
The trading experience is also noticeably different.
PredictIt's narrow political focus makes the platform relatively straightforward to browse.
Users buy and sell Yes or No shares connected to specific political outcomes.
Its smaller market universe means there are fewer categories and contract types to evaluate.
Polymarket US uses a central limit order book, or CLOB.
Buyers and sellers place orders at different prices, creating an exchange-style market in which users can choose whether to accept available liquidity or place their own order.
That gives experienced traders greater control over their execution price but introduces concepts such as:
Users coming from a traditional sportsbook may therefore face a slightly steeper learning curve.
Read our step-by-step guide on how to trade on Polymarket for more information.
Prediction-market contracts are only as clear as their resolution criteria.
A market headline may look simple, but the detailed rules determine what happens if an event is:
PredictIt users should read the rules attached to each individual market before trading.
This is particularly important in politics, where questions involving elections, government appointments, court decisions, or legislative actions can sometimes depend on very specific definitions.
Polymarket US contracts also contain predefined resolution criteria.
Once a contract is officially resolved according to its rules, winning contracts settle at $1 while losing contracts settle at $0.
This should not be confused with the resolution infrastructure used by the international Polymarket.com platform.
Polymarket.com has historically used blockchain-based infrastructure including UMA's Optimistic Oracle for market resolution.
Polymarket US is a separate regulated exchange and should be described according to its own U.S. contract and settlement rules.
On either platform, users should read the full market rules rather than relying solely on the headline.
PredictIt's focused political-market offering can make it easier to understand for someone primarily interested in elections and government.
There are fewer categories to browse, and the basic Yes-or-No contract structure is relatively intuitive.
Polymarket US offers a more exchange-oriented trading experience.
Users need to pay closer attention to:
That does not necessarily make Polymarket US difficult to use, but it rewards users who understand how an order book works.
The answer currently depends more on what you want to trade than on which platform is universally better.
PredictIt is currently the stronger choice if your main interest is:
Its narrow specialization is its biggest strength.
The trade-off is its fee structure and small-scale investment limits.
Polymarket US is the more relevant choice if you primarily want to trade sports event contracts and prefer exchange-style pricing.
Its central limit order book allows users to evaluate market depth and choose whether to provide or take liquidity rather than simply accepting a fixed sportsbook price.
The U.S. platform is also structured as a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market.
However, users should not assume they are getting the full international Polymarket.com product.
The U.S. platform currently has a different market selection, different fee structure, different regulatory framework, and different settlement infrastructure.
Choose PredictIt if political prediction markets are your main priority.
Consider Polymarket US if you primarily want sports event contracts and prefer an exchange-style trading environment.
The choice may become less clear as Polymarket US expands into additional prediction-market categories.
For deeper platform-by-platform analysis, read our complete PredictIt review and Polymarket review.
This comparison was last reviewed on August 11, 2026.
Our review used published platform documentation and regulatory materials, including:
Platform products, markets, fees, investment limits, and availability can change. Readers should confirm current information directly with the platform before trading.
PredictIt is currently the more relevant option for political prediction markets. Its market selection is specifically built around elections, government actions, political nominations, legislation, and related events.
Polymarket US currently focuses primarily on sports contracts, although additional market categories have been announced.
Yes, eligible U.S. users can trade through Polymarket US.
However, Polymarket US and Polymarket.com are separate products. U.S. residents are not permitted to deposit or trade through the international Polymarket.com platform.
Yes.
QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, operates as a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market.
That differs from PredictIt, which operates its small-scale prediction market under CFTC no-action relief.
Not necessarily in every situation.
PredictIt charges a 10% fee on profits and a 5% withdrawal fee.
Polymarket US instead uses an exchange trading-fee structure in which taker fees and maker rebates depend on factors including the contract price and order type.
Users should also consider the bid-ask spread and available liquidity when comparing the real cost of a trade.
Yes.
PredictIt's maximum investment by an individual participant in a specific contract is tied to the federal individual campaign-contribution limit, which can be adjusted periodically.
The CFTC cited $3,500 when it amended PredictIt's no-action framework in July 2025, but readers should check the current limit rather than treating that number as permanent.
Polymarket US should not be confused with the international Polymarket.com platform.
Polymarket.com uses crypto-based infrastructure including USDC, while Polymarket US operates as a separate U.S.-regulated exchange with its own dollar-denominated trading and settlement infrastructure.
The UMA Optimistic Oracle is associated with the international Polymarket.com platform.
Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated exchange and resolves and settles contracts according to its own published market and exchange rules.
Prediction-market contracts involve financial risk, and platform rules and market conditions can change.