2024 Olympic Men’s 4x100m Medley Relay Predictions, Odds & Results
Updated October 21, 2026
Updated October 21, 2026
The United States entered the 2024 Olympic men's 4x100m medley relay as the betting favorite, looking to extend one of the most remarkable winning streaks in Olympic history. Team USA had won gold every time it competed in this event since its introduction at the 1960 Rome Games.
China represented the biggest threat to that dominance, with world-record holder Pan Zhanle giving the team a dangerous weapon on the freestyle leg.
ATS.io originally backed the Americans to win at -152. But the final on August 4, 2024, delivered a historic upset, as China took gold in 3:27.46 and ended the United States' unbeaten Olympic record in the event.
Here's a look back at the original betting odds, the pre-race prediction, and the performance that changed Olympic swimming history.
The following gold-medal odds were published by ATS.io on August 2, 2024, with prices sourced from Sportzino.
Country | Original Gold Medal Odds |
|---|---|
United States | -152 |
China | +160 |
Great Britain | +1000 |
Australia | +1000 |
Italy | +1400 |
France | +1800 |
Netherlands | +3400 |
Germany | +4900 |
Poland | +6900 |
Canada | +7900 |
Japan | +9900 |
South Korea | +9900 |
Spain | +14900 |
Switzerland | +14900 |
Ireland | +24900 |
Austria | +24900 |
Historical pre-race odds from Sportzino, as published by ATS.io on August 2, 2024. These prices are retained for reference and are no longer available.
The United States was the clear favorite at -152, carrying an implied probability of approximately 60.3%.
China was the only other team priced shorter than +1000, with its +160 odds representing an implied probability of 38.5%.
Great Britain and Australia were considered the leading outsiders, while France was available at +1800 despite having Léon Marchand as a potential relay participant.
China ultimately won the race, meaning a $100 wager at the original +160 price would have returned $160 in profit.
The American men's medley relay team had an extraordinary Olympic record.
Since the event was introduced in 1960, the United States had won gold at every Games it attended. The only interruption was the 1980 Moscow Olympics, which the Americans boycotted.
That history made the USA a natural favorite entering Paris.
The Americans also had considerable talent across all four strokes.
Ryan Murphy was an established Olympic medalist in backstroke, while Caeleb Dressel had already won multiple Olympic gold medals and remained a major threat in butterfly.
The United States also held the world record of 3:26.78, set at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021.
With that pedigree, the -152 price reflected both historical dominance and the strength of the available swimmers.
However, China's individual talent suggested the race could be considerably closer than the American winning streak implied.
China was priced at +160 before the event, making it the clear second choice in the gold-medal market.
The team's greatest advantage was Pan Zhanle.
Pan had already produced one of the standout performances of the Paris Olympics, winning the individual men's 100m freestyle in a world-record 46.40 seconds.
His speed made China particularly dangerous in the final leg of the medley relay.
Xu Jiayu provided experience and quality in backstroke, while Qin Haiyang was capable of delivering a strong breaststroke performance.
Qin's individual results in Paris had been disappointing, which raised concerns about China's consistency across all four legs.
That concern featured prominently in the original ATS.io prediction.
The central question was whether China could remain close enough through the opening three legs to give Pan a realistic opportunity to win the race.
As the final demonstrated, the answer was yes.
Although the betting market centered on the United States and China, several other countries entered with legitimate podium ambitions.
Great Britain had Adam Peaty, one of the most accomplished breaststroke swimmers in history, along with strong relay options in the other strokes.
The British team was considered one of the leading candidates to challenge for a medal.
Australia could rely on Kyle Chalmers, an exceptional freestyle swimmer with extensive Olympic experience.
His finishing speed gave Australia a potential advantage in a close race.
France had home support and the possibility of including Léon Marchand, who had been the standout individual swimmer of the Paris Games.
Marchand's versatility and exceptional breaststroke ability gave France a credible route to the podium.
Of these three teams, France ultimately delivered the strongest performance.
The original ATS.io selection, published by Jay Sanin on August 2, 2024, was United States to win gold at -152.
The prediction acknowledged that China had the ability to challenge the Americans, particularly with Pan Zhanle swimming freestyle.
However, Qin Haiyang's struggles earlier in the meet raised questions about China's breaststroke leg.
The original analysis favored the Americans' overall depth and expected their long-standing Olympic dominance to continue.
Original pick: United States to win gold (-152)
Pick result: Loss
China won the gold medal, while Team USA finished second.
The result was a reminder that even an exceptionally strong historical record offers no guarantee when the competition features another team with world-class talent.
The final took place on August 4, 2024, at Paris La Défense Arena.
China produced a winning time of 3:27.46, finishing 0.55 seconds ahead of the United States.
France secured bronze in 3:28.38, giving the host nation another swimming medal.
Position | Country | Final Time |
|---|---|---|
Gold | China | 3:27.46 |
Silver | United States | 3:28.01 |
Bronze | France | 3:28.38 |
4th | Great Britain | 3:29.60 |
5th | Canada | 3:31.27 |
6th | Australia | 3:31.86 |
7th | Germany | 3:32.46 |
8th | Netherlands | 3:32.52 |
China's victory was the first time the United States had competed in the Olympic men's 4x100m medley relay without winning gold.
It ended a run of 15 consecutive American victories dating back to 1960.
The race was decided by a remarkable final leg, but China's victory was built on competitive performances throughout the relay.
Xu Jiayu opened the race with a backstroke split of 52.37 seconds.
That was the fastest opening leg in the final, putting China ahead of the field.
Ryan Murphy followed closely for the United States in 52.44 seconds.
Qin Haiyang delivered a breaststroke split of 57.98 seconds.
It was an important performance after his disappointing individual events earlier in the Olympics.
China remained in front at the halfway point, with a cumulative time of 1:50.35.
Caeleb Dressel produced the fastest butterfly split in the final, swimming 49.41 seconds.
That performance moved the Americans into second place, just 0.03 seconds behind France.
China dropped to third, 0.75 seconds behind the leaders.
With only the freestyle leg remaining, the United States appeared well positioned to challenge for another gold medal.
Pan Zhanle entered the water with China trailing France and the United States.
What followed was one of the greatest relay swims in Olympic history.
Pan completed his freestyle leg in 45.92 seconds, the fastest 100m freestyle relay split ever recorded.
He overtook both rivals and brought China home in 3:27.46.
American anchor Hunter Armstrong swam a strong 47.19 seconds, but it wasn't enough to hold off Pan.
The difference between their freestyle splits was 1.27 seconds.
China had turned a third-place position entering the final leg into an Olympic gold medal.
Stroke | China | United States |
|---|---|---|
Backstroke | Xu Jiayu — 52.37 | Ryan Murphy — 52.44 |
Breaststroke | Qin Haiyang — 57.98 | Nic Fink — 58.97 |
Butterfly | Sun Jiajun — 51.19 | Caeleb Dressel — 49.41 |
Freestyle | Pan Zhanle — 45.92 | Hunter Armstrong — 47.19 |
Final Time | 3:27.46 | 3:28.01 |
The Americans had the faster butterfly leg, but China held advantages in backstroke, breaststroke, and freestyle.
Pan's exceptional anchor performance provided the decisive margin.
The United States entered Paris with an extraordinary history in this event, but China's lineup was strong enough to challenge that dominance.
Three factors stand out when reviewing the race.
Qin Haiyang's struggles earlier in the Olympics were one of the main concerns surrounding China's chances.
In the relay final, however, he produced a 57.98-second split, almost a full second faster than American Nic Fink.
That gave China a significant advantage during the second leg.
Pan was already the individual 100m freestyle Olympic champion and world-record holder.
His 45.92-second relay split was even more impressive, although relay splits benefit from flying starts and cannot be compared directly with individual race times.
His performance proved decisive.
The Americans deserved consideration as favorites given their record and the talent available.
But China's +160 odds showed that the market also recognized a serious challenger.
The final illustrated the danger of placing too much weight on historical success when an opponent has the ability to produce a record-breaking performance.
Olympic relay betting requires more than comparing a country's medal history or its strongest individual swimmer.
A relay is decided by the combined performance of four swimmers.
One exceptional athlete can make a major difference, but the other three legs must keep the team competitive.
China's performance in backstroke and breaststroke gave Pan the opportunity to win the race.
Countries often use different lineups in qualifying and medal races.
China replaced Wang Changhao with Sun Jiajun for the final, while the United States brought in Murphy, Fink, Dressel, and Armstrong after using a different lineup in qualifying.
Those changes can materially affect a team's expected performance.
At -152, the United States needed to win approximately 60.3% of the time to break even over a large number of comparable bets.
China's +160 price offered a larger potential return, but the wager still required a reasonable assessment of the team's actual winning chances.
The result alone doesn't establish that China's pre-race price was necessarily good value. It does show why assessing the full field matters.
For a broader explanation of betting prices, see ATS.io's sports odds guide.
China won gold in 3:27.46, ahead of the United States in 3:28.01 and France in 3:28.38.
ATS.io listed the United States at -152 to win gold, based on pre-race odds from Sportzino published on August 2, 2024.
China was priced at +160 in the original ATS.io odds table.
ATS.io backed the United States to win gold at -152. The pick lost when China finished first.
Pan swam the final 100m freestyle leg in 45.92 seconds, the fastest relay split recorded over that distance.
The United States had won the men's 4x100m medley relay at every Olympics it had attended since the event began in 1960. The Americans did not compete at the 1980 Moscow Games because of the boycott.
The 2024 Olympic men's 4x100m medley relay produced one of the most significant results in swimming history.
The United States entered as the -152 favorite, backed by an unbeaten Olympic record in the event and a team full of accomplished swimmers.
China entered as the main challenger at +160 and delivered when it mattered most.
Qin Haiyang's strong breaststroke leg and Pan Zhanle's historic freestyle finish secured gold, ending 64 years of American dominance.
For more historical Olympic swimming coverage, read our 2024 women's 4x200m freestyle relay analysis. ATS.io also covers major sporting events and futures markets in its sports betting futures section.
→ Our Take: The USA's reputation and depth justified its status as the favorite, but China's +160 price reflected a genuine gold-medal threat. Qin delivered the breaststroke performance China needed, and Pan produced an extraordinary finish. The original ATS.io pick lost, and the race became a defining example of how even the longest winning streaks can end.
Updated October 21, 2026