Updated July 16, 2026
The New York Liberty head to Arlington on a three-game skid, and the Dallas Wings have won five straight going into their meeting on Thursday night. Dallas has already beaten New York twice this season, and with the Liberty missing two key rotation pieces, the Wings enter as home favorites looking to complete a season sweep at College Park Center.
Dallas has been the more consistent team for weeks, and the numbers back that up. The Wings have won five in a row, including a comeback victory over Chicago on Sunday, and they've already handled New York twice this season by shutting down the Liberty's outside shooting. New York shot under 46% from the field in both meetings, and Dallas gets a third crack at that formula with the extra benefit of the Liberty being without two key wing pieces.
Sabrina Ionescu has scored 20 or more points in back-to-back games, and Breanna Stewart remains a nightly 20-point threat, so New York has enough firepower to stay within a possession or two. But without Satou Sabally and Leonie Fiebich, the Liberty's depth thins out significantly, and Dallas has shown it can grind out close games with Paige Bueckers running the show late. Our model leans Wings by six, with the total settling just under the market number.
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Combined odds for the three-leg parlay: +500 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dallas has won both meetings with New York this season while holding the Liberty under 46% shooting each time, which supports both the moneyline and the under. Bueckers has been the focal point of Dallas' offense all season, and she's averaging 20.7 points per game while directing an attack that just posted five double-figure scorers against Chicago. We'll take her to have a big game to round out our parlay ticket.
Jessica Shepard Over 11.5 Rebounds at -118 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Shepard is Dallas' leading rebounder at 11.6 per game, and she's coming off a triple-double against New York on July 7 that included 12 boards. She also produced a 20-rebound performance earlier this season, so she should be able to clear this total against a Liberty frontcourt that will be without Fiebich's length on the wing.
Category | New York Liberty | Dallas Wings |
|---|---|---|
Offensive Rating | 109.4 | 111.3 |
Defensive Rating | 105.1 | 106.1 |
Net Rating | +4.3 | +5.2 |
Pace | 95.90 | 96.02 |
Effective FG % | 53.5% | 52.0% |
Rebound % | 52.2% | 51.0% |
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