CFL
Hamilton comes in as the stronger team on paper, with 408 points for and a 5-12 record, while Ottawa has struggled to a 1-16 mark with only 415 points for and 638 allowed. Hamilton has also handled this matchup well recently, including a 34-16 win in the most recent meeting. Ottawa’s offense can still produce bursts, as shown by its 40-39 win over Toronto, but the Redblacks have been far less stable week to week, especially defensively. Hamilton has been more efficient in its recent results, and that edge in scoring control is a major reason the total projects lower than the posted market number.
Hamilton has the better season profile, the better point differential, and the cleaner recent head-to-head form, but the strongest value angle is the under. Ottawa’s defense has been a problem all year, yet the Redblacks have also failed to show enough consistent scoring to demand a high total, and the recent meetings between these teams have stayed below the market number. My projection is Hamilton 30, Ottawa 24, which gives the Tiger-Cats the win while keeping the game below the total.
