COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Duke comes in at 4-1 with a 3-0 home record and a one-game losing streak, but its scoring profile has remained strong at 34.0 points per game. The Blue Devils have paired that with a defense allowing only 14.4 points per game, and their 5.8 yards per play on offense compares well with 5.1 allowed by the defense. North Carolina is 3-2 and has won its most recent game, but its offense has been less productive at 23.4 points per game and its defense has allowed 19.0 points per game and 152.0 rushing yards per game. The Tar Heels’ passing game has been steady at 218.2 yards per game, yet the overall yardage gap and Duke’s stronger defensive numbers point to an edge for the home side.
Duke is the side with the better offensive output, stronger scoring defense, and the more reliable home profile, so the projected result is a Duke Blue Devils win. North Carolina should be able to move the ball enough to keep the game competitive, but Duke’s balance on both sides of the ball should carry it late. Final score projection: Duke Blue Devils 31, North Carolina Tar Heels 24.
