Model Projection
Projected Score: Bologna 1-2 Inter Milan
Projected Total: 3.0 goals
Why This Position Stands Out
Our model’s 3.6-point edge clears a -159 threshold, and Kalshi’s -156 entry still works. Bologna’s 0.83 goals and 1.53 xG per match trail Inter’s 3.00 goals and 3.08 xG, so the visitor attack drives the call. Bologna can slow the pace, but its 1.17 goals against and 1.21 xGA per match point to regression favoring goals.
Matchup Overview
Across six Serie A matches, Bologna are 1-2-3 and Inter are 5-1-0. Bologna’s five goals trail 9.17 xG, while Inter’s 18 goals sit near 18.47 xG. Bologna average 3.5 shots on target per match against Inter’s 7.2, and the net xG gap is heavily in the visitors’ favor.
Prediction Summary
Our Bologna vs Inter Milan prediction is Bologna 1-2 Inter Milan. We like Over 2.5 goals at -156, with Inter’s 3.08 xG per match and Bologna’s 1.53 xG gap pointing to chances.
