Updated October 5, 2026
Editorial Review By: Henrik NormanSenior Sports & Prediction Markets Analyst
Prediction markets let you trade contracts tied to real-world events, from sports and elections to economics and financial markets. Compare the leading platforms and explore the latest prediction market news, offers and guides from ATS.
Prediction markets let users trade contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events. Markets can cover elections, interest rates, sports, financial markets, crypto, entertainment, weather and almost any other event with a clearly defined outcome.
Prices usually range between 1¢ and 99¢ and can be read as an approximate market probability. If a Yes contract trades at 62¢, for example, the market is roughly pricing the outcome at a 62% chance. Winning contracts generally settle at $1, while losing contracts settle at $0.
The mechanics are simple, but choosing a platform and a market requires more than looking at the price. Liquidity, fees, spreads, settlement rules, regulation and platform availability can all affect the value of a position.
Topic | What to Know |
|---|---|
Contract prices | Usually quoted between 1¢ and 99¢. A 65¢ contract roughly represents a 65% market probability. |
Settlement | Winning contracts generally settle at $1. Losing contracts settle at $0. |
Popular markets | Sports, politics, economics, financial markets, crypto, weather and entertainment. |
Major platforms | Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, FanDuel Predicts, DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics Markets, Novig and PredictIt. |
What to compare | Regulation, platform availability, liquidity, fees, spreads, market selection and settlement rules. |
If you're new to prediction markets, these guides cover the most important topics:
Start with small positions
Learn how prices move before risking meaningful money.
Read the settlement rules
Never trade based only on the market title.
Check the spread
A wide gap between buy and sell prices can make a trade much worse than it looks.
Use limit orders when possible
Market orders can lead to poor entries in thin markets.
Track fees
A profitable opinion can become unprofitable after costs.
Avoid chasing breaking news
Fast traders and bots may react before you can.
Know your edge
Trade markets where you understand the topic better than the average participant.
Prediction markets can differ significantly by platform and market. Regulation, availability, liquidity, fees, spreads and settlement rules can all affect where a contract is available and the value of a position.
Factor | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
Regulation and availability | A platform or individual market may not be available in every state or jurisdiction. |
Liquidity | More active markets generally make it easier to enter or exit a position near the displayed price. |
Bid-ask spread | A wide gap between available buy and sell prices can make a trade more expensive than the headline market probability suggests. |
Fees | Trading, settlement, withdrawal or other platform fees can reduce the value of a position. |
Settlement rules | Every contract should clearly state what determines the outcome and which source will be used to settle the market. |
Market depth | A displayed price does not guarantee that a larger order can be filled entirely at that price. |
There is no single legal answer that applies to every prediction market in the United States. Regulatory status can depend on the platform, the exchange behind the contract, the subject of the market and the user's location.
Several major prediction-market products operate through the federal derivatives system overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). At the same time, states and prediction-market operators continue to disagree over the treatment of some event contracts, particularly sports markets. As a result, access can change by state or even by individual market.
Users should always check current platform restrictions rather than assuming that federal regulation means every contract is available nationwide.
Want to compare platforms directly? See our Best Prediction Markets guide for a full breakdown of fees, market selection, availability, platform strengths and user fit.
The price displayed on a prediction market is not always the price at which your entire order can be filled.
A contract might show a market price around 50¢, but only a limited number of contracts may be available at that level. A larger order can move through several prices in the order book, increasing the average entry price. This is known as slippage.
Liquidity therefore matters alongside probability. Two markets can display similar prices while offering very different trading conditions. A wider bid-ask spread can also make entering and exiting a position more expensive.
Limit orders can help users control the maximum price they are willing to pay, particularly in markets with limited depth or wider spreads.
Settlement rules explain exactly what must happen for a contract to resolve Yes or No. They also identify the official source the platform will use to determine the outcome.
Before opening a position, check:
A correct prediction can still produce an unexpected result if the contract rules were misunderstood. The market wording and settlement source should therefore be checked before opening a position.
A prediction market is a platform where users trade contracts based on the outcome of future events. Prices usually reflect the market's estimated probability of an event happening.
Prediction markets work by letting users buy and sell outcome-based contracts. If the event happens, the winning side usually settles at $1. If it does not happen, the losing side settles at $0.
Some prediction markets are legally available in the U.S., but legality depends on the platform, contract type, user location, and regulatory structure. Users should check platform rules and local restrictions before trading.
Prediction markets can resemble gambling because users risk money on uncertain outcomes. However, many platforms are structured as event-contract exchanges where users trade against each other and prices reflect market probabilities.
Prediction markets usually make money through trading fees, settlement fees, spreads, withdrawal fees, or premium tools. The exact model depends on the platform.
Prediction markets cannot predict the future with certainty, but they can be useful forecasting tools because prices reflect real-money opinions from many traders. They should be treated as probabilities, not guarantees.
October 19, 2026
October 19, 2026
A federal watchdog will investigate staffing cuts at the CFTC amid the rapid growth of prediction markets, raising questions about the agency's ability to keep up with the expanding industry.
October 9, 2026
The CFTC is moving toward clearer rules for prediction markets, including a proposal that could further define event contracts as federally regulated swaps.
October 7, 2026
From Nevada and Arizona to Ohio and Connecticut, these are the 10 states taking the toughest action against prediction markets in 2026.
October 6, 2026
Kalshi is expanding beyond prediction markets with new stock index futures, part of a broader push to become a full-service U.S. trading exchange.
October 6, 2026
