Liverpool vs Arsenal Expert Prediction: Little Edge at Anfield
Updated October 30, 2026
Updated October 30, 2026
The heavyweight clash of the Premier League weekend sees champions Arsenal visit Anfield to face Andoni Iraola's Liverpool. Arsenal are level on points with Manchester City at the top but without Bukayo Saka, close to a third of their league xG. Liverpool have won just one of four at home.
Prediction markets have Arsenal at 40¢, Liverpool at 32¢ and the draw at 28¢, and at these prices, I see no true edge available at these prices.
Arsenal
Liverpool
| Sportsbook | ARS | LIV |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 19.0¢ | +1.5 82.0¢ |
| Polymarket | -1.5 19.0¢ | +1.5 82.0¢ |
| Sportsbook | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 2.5 53.1¢ | 2.5 48.1¢ |
| Polymarket | 2.5 51.9¢ | 2.5 49.0¢ |
| FanDuel | 2.5 -115 | 2.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 2.5 -117 | 2.5 -109 |
| BetMGM | 2.5 -125 | 2.5 -110 |
| Sportsbook | ARS | LIV | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 41.0¢ | 32.1¢ | 28.0¢ |
| Polymarket | 40.0¢ | 33.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| FanDuel | +135 | +190 | +240 |
| Fanatics | +135 | +190 | +240 |
| DraftKings | +135 | +195 | +250 |
| BetRivers | +138 | +195 | +245 |
| BetMGM | +130 | +200 | +240 |
The prices are close to right
Our model has Liverpool at 34.6%, the draw at 26% and Arsenal at 39%. Set against the market's 32¢, 28¢ and 40¢, that's a +2.6% edge on Liverpool and nothing anywhere else. Two points on a game this tight is within the margin of error. Liverpool to win would become worth taking at 31¢ or lower.
Arsenal's record is better than their numbers
Seven wins from eight is a title-winning pace, but Arsenal's expected points total is 15.96, about five below their actual 21. Most of that gap is defensive: they've conceded five goals from 8.12 xGA. Losing Saka hurts more than it looks, too. His 4.59 xG is close to a third of Arsenal's league total, and nobody else in the squad has more than 2.15.
Anfield hasn't been a fortress
Liverpool have been better away from home than at Anfield. They've won one of four home league games, averaging 1.28 xG for and 1.68 against, and Nottingham Forest put up 2.88 xG there in August. Away from home they've allowed only 1.00 xG per game. Against a well-drilled Arsenal side, that home record makes it hard to back Liverpool with any confidence.
Recommended Position:
No Pick
Current Price (Liverpool to Win):
32¢
Model Probability:
34.6%
Market Probability:
32%
Model Edge:
+2.6%
Entry Threshold:
31¢
Model Confidence:
40/100Why I'm Sitting this Out
“Arsenal are without Saka, Liverpool are shaky at home, and both are coming off midweek cup ties. All of that is already in the price. When the market and the model agree this closely, the right call is to wait and see if the market moves enough to offer an edge. If Liverpool drift to 31¢, then there will be a small edge on the Reds, and this might be worth a small trade.”
Metric | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
xG per game | 1.48 | 1.87 |
xGA per game | 1.34 | 1.02 |
Expected points | 11.79 | 15.96 |
Open-play xG per shot | 0.10 | 0.14 |
xG / xGA per game, last five | 1.34 / 1.12 | 1.75 / 1.37 |
xG / xGA per game, home / away | 1.28 / 1.68 at home | 1.42 / 1.30 away |
Player | Goals | Assists | xG | xA | Key passes per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alexander Isak (LIV) | 6 | 0 | 4.70 | 0.37 | 0.92 |
Cody Gakpo (LIV) | 1 | 3 | 0.88 | 1.79 | 2.53 |
Florian Wirtz (LIV) | 0 | 2 | 1.15 | 1.22 | 3.14 |
Martin Odegaard (ARS) | 2 | 0 | 2.15 | 2.12 | 2.04 |
Declan Rice (ARS) | 0 | 4 | 0.23 | 1.33 | 1.99 |
Gabriel (ARS) | 1 | 0 | 2.10 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
Andoni Iraola's 4-2-3-1 should be close to full strength, with Isak up front and Wirtz behind him after coming through a 30 minute cameo vs Chelsea unscathed. Gakpo and Bradley Barcola provide the width, and Barcola's pace is Liverpool's best route in behind Arsenal's full-backs.
Mikel Arteta's side will be patient. With Saka out, Martin Odegaard becomes even more important as the creator in this Arsenal setup. The Gunners will look to keep the game compact and make it count from set pieces, where Gabriel is a constant threat.
The midfield is where this is decided. Rice and Bruno Guimaraes against Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch is an even contest, and neither side is likely to dominate for long.
Corners will be big. Liverpool have produced 2.72 xG from corners without scoring once, and Arsenal have conceded just one goal from a corner all season. If Liverpool can't break that pattern, a single goal may settle it.
Out: Jeremie Frimpong (muscle), Giovanni Leoni (knee)
Doubtful: Dominik Szoboszlai (hamstring), Victor Munoz (knee)
Out: Bukayo Saka (quadriceps), Christos Tzolis
Suspended: Max Dowman
Doubtful: William Saliba (back)
Assessment needed: Declan Rice, Noni Madueke (ankle), Riccardo Calafiori
Liverpool predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Araujo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Barcola, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak
Arsenal predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Raya; Timber, Konsa, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Rice, Guimaraes; Madueke, Odegaard, Eze; Gyokeres
