Manchester City vs Southampton FA Cup Semi-Final Prediction: Fade the Blowout
City's defensive injuries and Southampton's legitimate xG profile make the under the angle here, not fading the result. My model has this 2-0 City. The market…
Apr 23, 2026
Manchester United vs Brentford Prediction: Bees to Sting Injured United
United are a narrow home favorite here, but the underlying numbers don't fully support that price. Their npxG over the last five matches sits at 1.28, well…
Apr 23, 2026
Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction: Gunners Fire Their Way Back into Title Race
The market is shading Arsenal correctly on the moneyline, but it's still light on the probability that this turns into a multi-goal home win. Newcastle arrive…
Apr 23, 2026
Wolves vs Tottenham Prediction: Spurs Finally Stop the Rot
Tottenham led Brighton 2-1 until the 90th minute last weekend, put up 13 shots and six on target, and lost the draw to a Danso error in stoppage time. They…
Apr 22, 2026
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace Prediction: Can Eagles Dominate Reds Again?
Liverpool host Crystal Palace at Anfield on Saturday needing another win to stay ahead in the race for the Champions League, while Glasner's side arrive off…
Apr 22, 2026
Premier League Title Race: Why Data Still Favours Arsenal
The narrative in the Premier League title race has flipped heavily toward City since Sunday's 2-1 win at the Etihad, but the numbers tell a more complicated…
Apr 21, 2026
Burnley vs Manchester City Prediction: Haaland to Punish Sorry Clarets
City head to Turf Moor three points off top spot, riding the momentum of Sunday's 2-1 win over Arsenal, and they face a Burnley side that's won once in 23…
Apr 21, 2026
Bournemouth vs Leeds Prediction: Expect Goals at the Vitality
Bournemouth are being priced as slight home favorites here, and the market has largely already accounted for the form gap. The Cherries have gone 13 matches…
Apr 21, 2026
Brighton vs Chelsea Prediction: Injury Hit Blues Struggle at the Amex
While brand power keeps the market anchored to Chelsea, Brighton are clearly on the right side of the number for Tuesday’s match at the Amex, with our model…
Apr 21, 2026
Inter vs Cagliari Prediction: Inter Edge Closer to the Scudetto
The market has Inter at -550 and it's not hard to see why: they lead Serie A by nine points, they've scored nine goals across their last two league games (5-2…
Apr 17, 2026
Juventus vs Bologna Prediction: Juve Grind Out Another Win
The public is backing Juventus at -160, and the surface case is fair: they're 4th in Serie A, have won four of their last five, and carry the best home xG…
Apr 17, 2026
Roma vs Atalanta Prediction: Visitors in a Value Spot
Roma are the favorites here and the market is pricing their home advantage heavily, but I think +207 on Atalanta represents one of the better underdog values…
Apr 17, 2026