NFL

Dallas enters with a 3-4 record but better underlying efficiency than Arizona, especially on offense and in turnover margin. The Cowboys have generated 189 points through seven games and have been more consistent in finishing drives, while their defense has been more manageable than Arizona’s in points allowed. Arizona is 2-5 overall, has been outscored by a large margin, and has allowed opponents to move the ball efficiently, which is a concern against a Dallas team that has been stronger at home. The Cardinals’ season profile suggests they can score enough to keep the game active, but their defensive numbers make it difficult to trust them to hold up for four quarters.
Dallas is the side with the better blend of efficiency, scoring output, and turnover profile, and that is enough to justify a lean to the Cowboys laying the points. Arizona has been vulnerable defensively and has not shown enough consistency to suggest it can slow Dallas for four quarters. The projected final score is Dallas 31, Arizona 24, which supports a Cowboys cover and a game total that lands just above the current market number.