Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Football Team Pick & Prediction Week 14
Updated October 26, 2026
Updated October 26, 2026
2021 NFL Week 14 betting preview and historical game analysis
The Dallas Cowboys entered Week 14 of the 2021 NFL season with a chance to take control of the NFC East. At 8–4, Dallas held a two-game lead over Washington, but the Football Team had won four straight and was suddenly back in the division race.
Washington's resurgence made this one of the most consequential games on the Week 14 schedule. Dallas had the stronger offense and a dangerous pass rush, while Washington was winning with a more conservative approach built around Antonio Gibson and Taylor Heinicke.
The Cowboys ultimately escaped FedExField with a 27–20 victory after nearly surrendering a 24-point lead. Their defense was responsible for much of the damage, including a touchdown created by rookie linebacker Micah Parsons.
Here's a look at the pregame betting picture, the matchup factors that mattered, and how the result affected the spread and total.
For upcoming matchups, visit our NFL picks and predictions.
Game information | Details |
|---|---|
Matchup | Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team |
NFL season | 2021 |
Week | 14 |
Date | Sunday, December 12, 2021 |
Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET |
Stadium | FedExField, Landover, Maryland |
Broadcast | FOX |
Dallas record entering game | 8–4 |
Washington record entering game | 6–6 |
Historical spread | Dallas -4 to -6.5 |
Historical total | Approximately 47.5–48.5 |
Final score | Cowboys 27, Washington 20 |
The betting lines reflect different points in the week and different sportsbooks. Dallas was widely listed around -4 early, with some markets moving considerably higher before kickoff.
The central question entering the matchup was whether Washington could control possession and keep Dak Prescott on the sideline.
The Football Team had won four consecutive games, largely by leaning on its running game and limiting the number of possessions available to opposing offenses.
Dallas presented a different challenge.
The Cowboys had more explosive offensive personnel, and their defense was becoming increasingly disruptive with Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Randy Gregory.
Washington's offensive line needed to keep Heinicke comfortable, particularly on third down.
The Cowboys also had a significant advantage in the turnover department, with Trevon Diggs emerging as one of the league's most productive defensive playmakers.
Retrospective selection, not a recovered original ATS.io pick.
At the earlier Dallas -4 line, the Cowboys were a reasonable side to consider.
Washington's four-game winning streak was impressive, but its offense depended heavily on controlling the pace and avoiding negative plays.
Dallas had the defensive personnel to disrupt that approach.
Parsons' speed and ability to pressure the quarterback presented a difficult matchup for Heinicke, while the Cowboys' secondary could capitalize on rushed throws.
The larger concern was Dallas' inconsistent offensive execution in the weeks leading up to the game.
Prescott had experienced some uneven performances, and Ezekiel Elliott was dealing with a knee issue.
Those concerns made the difference between Dallas -4 and -6.5 particularly important.
Historical result: Dallas won by seven, covering both numbers, although the closing margin was much tighter than the first-half performance suggested.
Retrospective selection, not a recovered original ATS.io pick.
The Under had a plausible case based on the teams' recent tendencies.
Washington wanted to run the ball, control possession, and shorten the game.
Dallas had also been playing lower-scoring games than its early-season offensive reputation suggested.
The Cowboys entered having gone Under in five of their previous six contests, while Washington had recorded six Unders in seven games.
Both defenses were creating opportunities to limit sustained drives.
The biggest concern for an Under bettor was the possibility of defensive touchdowns or short fields.
That risk became especially relevant in the actual game.
Historical result: The teams combined for 47 points, putting Under 48.5 on the winning side. Under 47.5 also won, while Under 47 would have pushed.
Dallas arrived in Washington following a 27–17 victory over the New Orleans Saints.
The Cowboys had improved to 8–4, but their offense was experiencing an uneven stretch.
Prescott had plenty of receiving talent available, including CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup.
However, the running game had become less dependable.
Elliott was managing a knee injury, and Tony Pollard's availability was another concern heading into the matchup.
That placed additional pressure on Prescott to create offense through the air.
Washington's defense had been improving during its winning streak, making sustained drives more difficult than its early-season numbers suggested.
The Cowboys' defensive improvement was one of the most important developments of their 2021 season.
Parsons had quickly become a disruptive force as a rookie.
His ability to rush from different positions created difficult protection assignments for opposing offenses.
Lawrence had returned to action, and Gregory was also available for the Washington matchup.
With those players on the field, Dallas could generate pressure without relying exclusively on heavy blitz packages.
That was especially important against Heinicke, whose effectiveness depended on avoiding long-yardage situations and keeping the offense on schedule.
Diggs also presented a major threat in the secondary.
His ability to generate interceptions made aggressive downfield passing particularly risky.
For more historical matchup analysis, see our Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 9 prediction.
Washington had recovered from a 2–6 start to reach 6–6.
The turnaround included victories over Tampa Bay, Carolina, Seattle, and Las Vegas.
Head coach Ron Rivera's team was playing more disciplined football, while Heinicke had helped stabilize the offense.
Gibson was central to the approach.
Washington increasingly relied on him to establish the running game and control possession.
The strategy had been effective during the winning streak, but Dallas' defensive front represented a significant test.
Gibson's workload had increased considerably following Washington's bye week.
His rushing production helped keep the Football Team in manageable down-and-distance situations.
That reduced the number of obvious passing downs for Heinicke.
Against Dallas, Washington needed another productive rushing performance.
A strong running game would have helped limit Parsons' pass-rushing opportunities and kept Prescott off the field.
The opposite scenario was dangerous.
If Washington fell behind early, Heinicke would have to throw more frequently against an aggressive Dallas defense.
That is exactly what happened.
Washington had also suffered important losses on defense.
Chase Young was out for the season with a torn ACL, while Montez Sweat had missed time.
Those absences weakened the pass rush and reduced the defense's ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks consistently.
The Football Team still had capable interior defenders, including Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne.
But containing Dallas' passing attack without its full complement of edge rushers was a difficult assignment.
Washington ultimately performed better defensively than the final result might suggest.
Its offense and turnovers created many of the problems that put the team behind.
Parsons was the most disruptive defensive player in the matchup.
His speed made him difficult to block, and Dallas could move him around the formation to create favorable matchups.
Washington needed to avoid obvious passing situations.
When Heinicke was forced to drop back under pressure, Dallas had the advantage.
Prescott had several options capable of winning individual matchups.
Cooper, Lamb, and Gallup gave Dallas the ability to attack different areas of the field.
Washington needed its secondary to prevent explosive plays while generating enough pressure to disrupt Prescott.
The Football Team eventually held Dallas to just 211 passing yards, but the Cowboys benefited from turnovers and favorable field position.
Gibson's production was essential to Washington's offensive approach.
A successful running game could have helped Washington control the clock.
Dallas instead built an early lead, forcing Washington away from its preferred style.
Gibson finished with only 36 rushing yards on 10 carries.
That limited production was a major factor in Washington's offensive struggles.
Dallas dominated the first half.
The Cowboys scored 18 points in the opening quarter and led 24–0 at halftime.
A 35-yard Greg Zuerlein field goal opened the scoring.
Prescott then connected with Cooper for a seven-yard touchdown, with Elliott adding a successful two-point conversion.
The Cowboys' defense produced the game's most significant early play late in the first quarter.
Parsons sacked Heinicke and forced a fumble, which Dorance Armstrong returned 37 yards for a touchdown.
Dallas added two more Zuerlein field goals in the second quarter.
At halftime, Washington had been shut out.
The game appeared to be heading toward a comfortable Cowboys victory.
But the second half was much different.
Heinicke found Cam Sims for a 43-yard touchdown in the third quarter.
A successful two-point conversion reduced the deficit to 24–8.
Dallas responded with another Zuerlein field goal, extending its lead to 27–8.
Washington then scored 12 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.
Jonathan Williams ran for a one-yard touchdown.
Less than a minute later, Cole Holcomb intercepted Prescott and returned the ball 31 yards for another score.
Suddenly, Dallas' lead was down to seven.
Washington had an opportunity to complete the comeback, but the Cowboys' defense forced another turnover late in the game.
Dallas held on for a 27–20 victory.
Quarter | Dallas | Washington |
|---|---|---|
First | 18 | 0 |
Second | 6 | 0 |
Third | 3 | 8 |
Fourth | 0 | 12 |
Final | 27 | 20 |
Dallas scored all 27 of its points in the first three quarters.
Washington scored all 20 of its points in the second half.
That contrast explains why the game finished much closer than the first-half performance suggested.
Player | Team | Performance |
|---|---|---|
Dak Prescott | Dallas | 211 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT |
Taylor Heinicke | Washington | 122 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT |
Kyle Allen | Washington | 53 passing yards |
Ezekiel Elliott | Dallas | 45 rushing yards |
Corey Clement | Dallas | 44 rushing yards |
Antonio Gibson | Washington | 36 rushing yards |
CeeDee Lamb | Dallas | 61 receiving yards |
Cam Sims | Washington | 69 receiving yards, 1 TD |
Micah Parsons | Dallas | 2 sacks, forced fumble |
Prescott completed 22 of 39 passes.
Heinicke completed 11 of 25 before leaving the game with a knee injury.
Washington's offense struggled to generate sustained drives, finishing just 3-of-14 on third down.
Dallas' defense recorded five sacks overall.
Parsons was responsible for two of them, including the strip-sack that led directly to Armstrong's touchdown.
The final score produced different results depending on the exact number a bettor had taken.
Dallas won by seven points.
That was enough to cover the commonly reported early-week spread of -4 and the higher -6.5 number appearing in some later listings.
Dallas spread | Result |
|---|---|
Cowboys -4 | Win |
Cowboys -4.5 | Win |
Cowboys -5 | Win |
Cowboys -6.5 | Win |
Cowboys -7 | Push |
A Washington +7 wager would also have pushed.
The Cowboys' large first-half lead made a comfortable cover appear likely, but Washington's late rally brought the margin back within one touchdown.
The teams combined for 47 points.
Historical total | Result |
|---|---|
Under 48.5 | Win |
Under 48 | Win |
Under 47.5 | Win |
Under 47 | Push |
The Under survived despite two defensive touchdowns and Washington's 20-point second half.
Those unusual scoring plays are worth emphasizing.
A game can feature limited offensive production and still threaten an Under because of turnovers returned for touchdowns.
Dallas won outright and therefore cashed Cowboys moneyline bets.
Washington moneyline wagers lost.
The reconstructed Dallas -4 and Under 48.5 selections would both have won, but there is no surviving evidence that these were the original ATS.io author's picks.
Parsons' first-quarter strip-sack was the defining play.
Washington was already trailing 11–0 when Heinicke dropped back to pass.
Parsons beat the protection, reached the quarterback, and knocked the ball loose.
Armstrong recovered and returned it for a touchdown.
Dallas suddenly led 18–0.
The score forced Washington into a more aggressive offensive approach much earlier than planned.
That reduced Gibson's role and increased Heinicke's exposure to Dallas' pass rush.
The Cowboys eventually built a 24-point halftime lead.
The defensive touchdown also demonstrated the risk involved in betting totals.
Even when an offense struggles to move the ball, its mistakes can generate points for the opponent.
Washington later produced a defensive touchdown of its own when Holcomb intercepted Prescott.
Both teams scored directly through their defenses.
Dallas' offense struggled to finish the game.
After building a 27–8 lead, the Cowboys failed to score in the fourth quarter.
Prescott's interception return for a touchdown gave Washington an opportunity to complete a remarkable comeback.
The Cowboys had also struggled to establish a consistent rushing attack.
Elliott managed 45 yards on 12 carries, while Clement gained 44 yards on 13 attempts.
Without reliable production on the ground, Dallas had difficulty closing out the game through sustained possessions.
Washington's defense deserves credit.
Despite entering with injuries along its defensive front, the Football Team recorded four sacks and forced Prescott into two interceptions.
The Cowboys won largely because their defense created enough opportunities to overcome the offense's second-half problems.
Dallas improved to 9–4.
Washington fell to 6–7.
The victory gave the Cowboys a commanding advantage in the NFC East standings.
Washington's four-game winning streak came to an end, and its hopes of challenging Dallas for the division title suffered a major setback.
The Cowboys eventually finished the regular season 12–5 and won the NFC East.
Washington ended the season 7–10.
Dallas reached the playoffs but lost 23–17 to the San Francisco 49ers in the Wild Card round.
The Week 14 victory was therefore important in Dallas' division-winning season, even though the game exposed concerns about its offensive consistency.
Three aspects of this matchup stand out when reviewing the betting outcome.
The spread changed significantly during the week. Dallas was available around -4 in earlier markets, while some later prices reached -6.5. Both won, but the difference represented meaningful value.
Defensive pressure was the decisive matchup advantage. Washington's offensive strategy depended on avoiding negative plays. Dallas' pass rush disrupted that approach and created a touchdown.
The final score did not reflect the offensive performances alone. Two defensive touchdowns contributed 13 points to a game that finished with 47. Understanding how those points were generated matters when evaluating the total.
For current NFL matchups, compare the latest NFL odds and betting markets and review available prices across online sportsbooks.
Dallas defeated Washington 27–20 on December 12, 2021.
Dallas was favored. Historical lines varied by sportsbook and timing, with commonly reported numbers ranging between Cowboys -4 and -6.5.
Yes. Dallas won by seven points, covering spreads of -4 through -6.5.
The game finished with 47 combined points. Under 47.5 and Under 48.5 both won, while a total of exactly 47 resulted in a push.
Dallas led Washington 24–0 at halftime.
Prescott threw for 211 yards, one touchdown, and
Updated October 26, 2026
.webp%3F2026-10-30T12%253A49%253A00.902Z&w=3840&q=75&dpl=c574c6347b9f5d8826f396c7751b90b2d31b27f1)
.webp%3F2026-10-29T16%253A30%253A45.203Z&w=3840&q=75&dpl=c574c6347b9f5d8826f396c7751b90b2d31b27f1)