Kalshi Introduces NFL Player Prop Protection – But There's a Catch
Updated October 30, 2026
Updated October 30, 2026
Kalshi has introduced injury protection for select NFL player props, giving traders some financial protection when players leave games early. However, there's an important catch: protected contracts don't necessarily return the original purchase price.
The feature, introduced earlier in October, allows certain NFL player markets to settle at their pregame fair value when a player participates in the first half but doesn't return after halftime.
It's a welcome addition for anyone who's watched a promising player prop fall apart because of an early exit. Still, Kalshi's system works differently from traditional injury refunds, and understanding those differences matters.
Protected NFL player markets follow specific participation rules.
If a player participates in at least one play during the first half, doesn't participate in the second half or overtime, and hasn't already reached the required statistical target, the contract settles at its fair price before kickoff.
For example, consider a trader holding a protected YES contract on a quarterback throwing for 250+ yards.
If the quarterback leaves before halftime and never returns, having failed to reach 250 yards, Kalshi settles the contract at its pregame fair price instead of treating the statistical target as unsuccessful.
The important conditions are:
Interestingly, an official injury isn't required. The settlement rule is based on participation, meaning it can apply even when a player doesn't return for another reason.
If the player returns for just one play after halftime, the protection no longer applies.
Not exactly. Kalshi uses a fair-price settlement rather than automatically refunding the original purchase price.
A trader purchases a protected contract at 60¢.
The player leaves during the first half and doesn't return.
Kalshi determines the pregame fair value was 45¢.
The contract settles at 45¢, resulting in a 15¢ loss per contract.
A trader purchases a protected contract at 60¢.
The player leaves during the first half and doesn't return.
Kalshi determines the pregame fair value was 45¢.
The contract settles at 45¢, resulting in a 15¢ loss per contract.
Kalshi determines the fair price under its market rules, and the settlement can be higher or lower than the trader's original entry price.
Protected markets also generally cost more than their standard counterparts, reflecting the additional settlement protection. For a broader look at the platform's pricing and features, see our Kalshi review.
Kalshi offers protection on select NFL player markets, including eligible touchdown and yardage contracts.
In the Kalshi mobile app, traders can activate protection for eligible YES selections through the Combo builder before the game begins.
A shield icon identifies protected selections, and enabling the feature updates the combo's price and potential payout.
Protection cannot be added after a position has been purchased.
For combinations involving multiple players, protection applies only to eligible selections. An unsuccessful unprotected selection can still cause the entire combo to settle at $0.
If you're unfamiliar with how the platform works, our guide to trading on Kalshi explains YES and NO contracts, pricing, and how trades are settled.
Injuries have always been one of the biggest frustrations with NFL player props. A player can enter a game, suffer an early injury, and leave traders holding contracts that have little chance of reaching their statistical targets.
Kalshi's protected markets offer an alternative, although they don't eliminate that risk entirely.
The feature also represents another step toward prediction-market platforms offering products traditionally associated with sportsbooks. Readers can explore live prices for game winners, spreads, and totals on our NFL prediction markets page.
For now, Kalshi's protection is limited to eligible NFL player markets. Equivalent protected versions are not currently available for NBA, NHL, MLB or soccer player contracts.
For traders, the distinction is simple: injury protection can reduce the damage from an early exit, but it doesn't guarantee you'll recover your original position.
Not automatically. Standard NFL player markets generally settle based on the player's actual statistics once they have participated in a play. Eligible protected markets can instead settle at a pregame fair price if the player leaves during the first half and doesn't return after halftime.
Kalshi's injury protection does not apply if the player participates in any second-half or overtime play. The market settles according to the player's actual statistics, even if an injury prevents them from finishing the game.
No. Kalshi's protection rules are based on participation rather than an official injury designation. If a player participates in the first half but not after halftime, the protection can apply regardless of why they left, provided the other conditions are satisfied.
No. Protection must be enabled before the game starts and before placing the position. Eligible YES selections can be protected through Kalshi's mobile Combo builder.
No. Protection is available only for select NFL player markets. Availability varies by game and contract, and protected versions generally carry higher prices than standard contracts.
Not currently. Kalshi's protected player markets are limited to eligible NFL contracts. Player props in other sports follow their respective settlement rules.
| Matchup | Player | First TD | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Ashton Dulin | — | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Yes 16.0¢ | Yes 55.0¢ | |
| Brenton Strange | Yes 9.0¢ | Yes 34.0¢ | |
| Brian Thomas Jr | Yes 4.0¢ | Yes 17.0¢ | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Yes 6.0¢ | Yes 27.0¢ | |
| Daniel Jones | Yes 3.0¢ | Yes 16.0¢ | |
| Deion Burks | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 14.0¢ | |
| Indianapolis Colts D/ST | Yes 5.0¢ | — | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST | Yes 5.0¢ | — | |
| Jakobi Meyers | Yes 9.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Jonathan Taylor | Yes 13.0¢ | Yes 51.9¢ | |
| Josh Cameron | Yes 5.0¢ | Yes 23.0¢ | |
| Josh Downs | — | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Keenan Allen | Yes 4.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Laquon Treadwell | Yes 3.0¢ | Yes 17.0¢ | |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | Yes 3.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Mo Alie-Cox | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 15.0¢ | |
| Nate Boerkircher | Yes 4.0¢ | Yes 18.0¢ | |
| No Touchdown | Yes 1.0¢ | — | |
| Parker Washington | Yes 15.0¢ | Yes 49.0¢ | |
| Pharaoh Brown | — | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Quintin Morris | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Seth McGowan | Yes 5.0¢ | Yes 97.0¢ | |
| Travis Hunter | Yes 4.0¢ | — | |
| Trevor Lawrence | Yes 6.0¢ | Yes 29.0¢ | |
| Will Mallory | Yes 3.0¢ | Yes 97.0¢ | |
| Arizona Cardinals D/ST | Yes 4.0¢ | — | |
| Bam Knight | Yes 8.0¢ | Yes 38.0¢ | |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | Yes 4.0¢ | Yes 21.0¢ | |
| Camden Brown | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| CeeDee Lamb | Yes 13.0¢ | Yes 57.1¢ | |
| Dak Prescott | Yes 4.0¢ | Yes 20.0¢ | |
| Dallas Cowboys D/ST | Yes 2.0¢ | — | |
| Devin Duvernay | — | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Elijah Higgins | Yes 3.0¢ | Yes 97.0¢ | |
| Evan Hull | — | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| George Pickens | — | Yes 48.1¢ | |
| Hunter Luepke | Yes 2.0¢ | — | |
| Jacoby Brissett | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 17.0¢ | |
| Jake Ferguson | Yes 6.0¢ | Yes 35.0¢ | |
| Javonte Williams | Yes 20.0¢ | Yes 69.0¢ | |
| Jonathan Mingo | Yes 3.0¢ | Yes 16.0¢ | |
| Kendrick Bourne | Yes 3.0¢ | Yes 26.0¢ | |
| Luke Schoonmaker | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Michael Wilson | Yes 5.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| No Touchdown | Yes 1.0¢ | — | |
| Reggie Virgil | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 11.0¢ | |
| Ryan Flournoy | Yes 5.0¢ | Yes 30.0¢ | |
| Simi Fehoko | Yes 1.0¢ | Yes 10.0¢ | |
| Teagan Quitoriano | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 13.0¢ | |
| Trey McBride | Yes 9.0¢ | Yes 55.0¢ | |
| Tyler Allgeier | Yes 5.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Tyler Goodson | Yes 4.0¢ | Yes 21.0¢ | |
| Aaron Rodgers | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 11.0¢ | |
| Audric Estime | Yes 2.0¢ | — | |
| Blake Whiteheart | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Cleveland Browns D/ST | Yes 4.0¢ | — | |
| DK Metcalf | Yes 9.0¢ | Yes 97.0¢ | |
| Darnell Washington | Yes 7.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Denzel Boston | Yes 6.0¢ | Yes 28.0¢ | |
| Deshaun Watson | Yes 5.0¢ | Yes 21.0¢ | |
| Dylan Sampson | Yes 4.0¢ | Yes 15.0¢ | |
| Eli Heidenreich | Yes 2.0¢ | — | |
| Germie Bernard | Yes 8.0¢ | Yes 28.0¢ | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Yes 7.0¢ | Yes 25.0¢ | |
| Isaiah Bond | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Jaylen Warren | Yes 18.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Jerry Jeudy | Yes 4.0¢ | Yes 17.0¢ | |
| KC Concepcion | Yes 7.0¢ | Yes 23.0¢ | |
| Kaden Wetjen | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Lew Nichols | Yes 2.0¢ | — | |
| Malachi Corley | Yes 2.0¢ | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| No Touchdown | Yes 2.0¢ | — | |
| Pat Freiermuth | Yes 7.0¢ | Yes 28.0¢ | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST | Yes 4.0¢ | — | |
| Quinshon Judkins | Yes 14.0¢ | Yes 42.9¢ | |
| Rico Dowdle | Yes 6.0¢ | Yes 29.0¢ | |
| Robert Tonyan | — | Yes 99.0¢ | |
| Travis Homer | Yes 2.0¢ | — |
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