Super Bowl LVIII First Touchdown Scorer Prop Odds & Predictions
Updated October 26, 2026
Updated October 26, 2026
The first touchdown scorer market is one of the most popular Super Bowl prop bets, offering substantial payouts for correctly identifying the player who reaches the end zone first. Super Bowl LVIII featured several strong candidates, including Christian McCaffrey, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, and Deebo Samuel.
Ahead of the February 11, 2024 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, McCaffrey was the favorite at +350. Our original prediction backed Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco at +600, with Noah Gray at +4000 highlighted as a longer-priced alternative.
The winning player was McCaffrey. He caught a 21-yard touchdown pass from Jauan Jennings in the second quarter, giving San Francisco a 10-0 lead. Kansas City ultimately won Super Bowl LVIII 25-22 in overtime, but McCaffrey had already settled the first-touchdown market.
This updated retrospective preserves the original DraftKings odds and predictions, reviews the result, and examines what bettors can learn from one of the Super Bowl's most unpredictable markets.
The following prices were published in the original ATS.io article on February 2, 2024, using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Player or selection | Historical odds |
|---|---|
Christian McCaffrey | +350 |
Isiah Pacheco | +600 |
Travis Kelce | +650 |
Deebo Samuel | +800 |
Rashee Rice | +850 |
Brandon Aiyuk | +850 |
George Kittle | +900 |
Patrick Mahomes | +2200 |
49ers D/ST | +2500 |
Justin Watson | +2800 |
Chiefs D/ST | +3000 |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | +3000 |
Jauan Jennings | +3000 |
Brock Purdy | +3000 |
Elijah Mitchell | +3000 |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | +3500 |
Kadarius Toney | +3500 |
Skyy Moore | +4000 |
Noah Gray | +4000 |
Ray-Ray McCloud | +4000 |
Kyle Juszczyk | +4000 |
Mecole Hardman | +5500 |
Richie James | +5500 |
Chris Conley | +5500 |
Ronnie Bell | +6000 |
Jordan Mason | +6000 |
Justyn Ross | +6500 |
Charlie Woerner | +7000 |
Blake Bell | +9000 |
Brayden Willis | +9000 |
La'Mical Perine | +11000 |
No TD Scorer | +16000 |
Source: DraftKings Sportsbook odds archived in the original ATS.io preview. These prices are historical and no longer available.
McCaffrey entered as the clear favorite, followed by Pacheco and Kelce.
The market reflected each player's expected scoring opportunities, especially around the goal line.
McCaffrey was the centerpiece of San Francisco's offense, while Pacheco had become Kansas City's preferred short-yardage running back during the playoffs.
Kelce, Samuel, and Rice offered additional receiving options at somewhat longer prices.
For current first-touchdown prices and other markets, see the ATS.io NFL player props comparison.
Original pick: Isiah Pacheco to score the first touchdown (+600)
Pacheco was our preferred selection entering Super Bowl LVIII.
The Chiefs running back had scored a touchdown in each of Kansas City's three playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl.
More importantly, all three touchdowns came from inside the five-yard line.
That usage made Pacheco a strong candidate to receive the ball when Kansas City reached scoring territory.
Pacheco's playoff workload gave the original prediction a reasonable foundation.
He had become a central part of Kansas City's rushing offense and was consistently trusted in short-yardage situations.
His postseason touchdowns came against Miami, Buffalo, and Baltimore.
Those performances suggested the Chiefs would continue giving him opportunities near the goal line.
At +600, Pacheco offered a considerably larger payout than McCaffrey.
A $100 winning bet would have returned $700, including $600 in profit.
The question was whether Kansas City would generate the first touchdown opportunity.
Pacheco finished with 18 carries for 59 rushing yards and six receptions for 33 receiving yards.
He did not score a touchdown.
He also lost a fumble during the first half when Kansas City was threatening to score.
That turnover was especially costly for a first-touchdown wager, as it ended a promising Chiefs possession without points.
By the time Kansas City scored its first touchdown in the third quarter, McCaffrey had already won the market for San Francisco.
Original Pacheco +600 prediction: Loss.
The pregame reasoning about Pacheco's goal-line role was understandable, but it didn't translate into a winning bet.
The original preview also highlighted Chiefs tight end Noah Gray at +4000.
Gray was an interesting alternative because his price was longer than those of several Kansas City receivers who had limited offensive roles.
At +4000, a $100 winning bet would have produced $4,000 in profit.
That potential payout made him worth considering as a speculative selection, although his probability of scoring first remained low.
Kansas City's offense frequently used multiple tight ends.
With opposing defenses paying considerable attention to Kelce, Gray could occasionally find opportunities on short passes near the end zone.
The original article also questioned the relative prices of Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney.
Gray's +4000 price was attractive compared with some of those alternatives.
Gray caught two passes for 22 yards in Super Bowl LVIII.
He did not score a touchdown.
Original Noah Gray +4000 long-shot suggestion: Loss.
His limited receiving opportunities reflected the inherent difficulty of predicting a first-touchdown scorer among lower-volume offensive players.
Christian McCaffrey scored the first touchdown of Super Bowl LVIII on a 21-yard reception from Jauan Jennings.
The play occurred with 4:23 remaining in the second quarter.
San Francisco was already leading 3-0 after Jake Moody's 55-yard field goal.
The 49ers used a trick play that began with Brock Purdy throwing a backward pass to Jennings.
Jennings then threw across the field to McCaffrey, who ran into the end zone for the touchdown.
The play extended San Francisco's lead to 10-0.
It was an unusual way for the favorite to cash the first-touchdown market.
McCaffrey had been expected to receive plenty of rushing opportunities, but his winning score came on a designed pass from a wide receiver.
Detail | Result |
|---|---|
First TD scorer | Christian McCaffrey |
Team | San Francisco 49ers |
Quarter | Second |
Time remaining | 4:23 |
Play | 21-yard touchdown reception |
Passer | Jauan Jennings |
Score after touchdown | 49ers 10, Chiefs 0 |
Original DraftKings odds | +350 |
Winning bet | McCaffrey first touchdown scorer |
Jennings received credit for a touchdown pass, but McCaffrey was the player who scored.
That distinction matters when settling first-touchdown scorer bets.
The market is graded according to the player who reaches the end zone, rather than the quarterback or passer responsible for the touchdown.
McCaffrey's original +350 price represented a substantial payout for a player considered the most likely first touchdown scorer.
Stake | Profit at +350 | Total return |
|---|---|---|
$10 | $35 | $45 |
$25 | $87.50 | $112.50 |
$50 | $175 | $225 |
$100 | $350 | $450 |
$250 | $875 | $1,125 |
These figures use the original archived +350 price.
Sportsbooks offered different prices before kickoff, so actual returns depended on the odds accepted when the wager was placed.
American odds of +350 correspond to an implied probability of approximately 22.2%.
That means the price represented a little more than a one-in-five chance of McCaffrey scoring the game's first touchdown, before considering the sportsbook's margin.
Pacheco at +600 had an implied probability of approximately 14.3%.
Kelce at +650 was approximately 13.3%.
These probabilities illustrate why first-touchdown bets are difficult, even when backing the favorite.
McCaffrey was the most likely individual scorer according to the market, but the odds still implied that another outcome was considerably more likely.
McCaffrey entered Super Bowl LVIII after an outstanding 2023 season.
He led the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards during the regular season and scored 21 touchdowns from scrimmage.
His combination of rushing, receiving, and goal-line involvement made him a natural favorite in touchdown markets.
McCaffrey's biggest advantage was his ability to produce touchdowns through different types of plays.
San Francisco could use him on traditional handoffs, outside runs, screens, and designed receiving plays.
That versatility gave him more potential scoring opportunities than a player used primarily as a receiver or short-yardage specialist.
His actual Super Bowl touchdown demonstrated that advantage.
Rather than scoring on a conventional goal-line run, he caught a pass on a creative play designed to take advantage of Kansas City's defensive positioning.
The 49ers had several other scoring threats, including Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle.
Defenses couldn't focus exclusively on McCaffrey without creating opportunities elsewhere.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense was built around movement, misdirection, and getting talented players into favorable matchups.
Those characteristics helped create the first touchdown.
McCaffrey won the market, but a winning outcome doesn't automatically prove that a price offered positive expected value.
That would require an independent estimate of his probability of scoring first.
The available evidence supported his status as the favorite: high usage, consistent scoring production, and multiple ways to reach the end zone.
The result confirmed his scoring potential, but the underlying value of +350 must still be judged against the probability implied by the odds.
Kansas City defeated San Francisco 25-22 in overtime at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on February 11, 2024.
The 49ers led 10-3 at halftime, but the Chiefs recovered and eventually won on a touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes to Mecole Hardman.
Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 22 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 0 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 25 |
Order | Scorer | Team | Play | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | 21-yard reception from Jauan Jennings | Q2 |
2 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | Chiefs | 16-yard reception from Patrick Mahomes | Q3 |
3 | Jauan Jennings | 49ers | 10-yard reception from Brock Purdy | Q4 |
4 | Mecole Hardman | Chiefs | 3-yard reception from Patrick Mahomes | OT |
Only four touchdowns were scored during the game.
The first arrived in the second quarter, meaning first-touchdown bettors had to wait through the entire opening period.
The Chiefs didn't score a touchdown until the third quarter.
That was the central problem for Pacheco and the other Kansas City candidates: San Francisco reached the end zone first.
The original article recommended Pacheco at +600 and identified Gray at +4000 as a longer-priced alternative.
Neither scored.
McCaffrey, the favorite, delivered the winning result.
Selection | Historical odds | Result |
|---|---|---|
Christian McCaffrey | +350 | Won |
Isiah Pacheco | +600 | Lost |
Travis Kelce | +650 | Lost |
Deebo Samuel | +800 | Lost |
Rashee Rice | +850 | Lost |
Brandon Aiyuk | +850 | Lost |
George Kittle | +900 | Lost |
Noah Gray | +4000 | Lost |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | +3500 | Lost |
Jauan Jennings | +3000 | Lost |
Mecole Hardman | +5500 | Lost |
Valdes-Scantling, Jennings, and Hardman each scored touchdowns later in the game, but that didn't help first-touchdown wagers on those players.
The first-touchdown market has only one winning player, regardless of how many others score afterward.
The Pacheco prediction focused on Kansas City's goal-line usage.
That was a legitimate pregame consideration, especially after his touchdowns in each of the Chiefs' first three postseason games.
However, first-touchdown betting depends on more than a player's scoring role.
The player's team must reach the end zone before its opponent, and the selected player must finish the scoring play.
Kansas City struggled offensively during the first half, while San Francisco created the game's first touchdown through a trick play.
Pacheco's first-half fumble further reduced his opportunity to cash.
The result illustrates the difficulty of turning strong anytime-touchdown reasoning into a first-touchdown prediction.
These two prop markets may appear similar, but their settlement rules are different.
A first-touchdown scorer bet wins only when the selected player scores the first touchdown of the game.
An anytime-touchdown scorer bet wins if the selected player scores at least one touchdown at any point during the game, including overtime under standard sportsbook rules.
McCaffrey won both the first-touchdown and anytime-touchdown markets.
Valdes-Scantling, Jennings, and Hardman scored later, so they could win anytime-touchdown bets but not first-touchdown bets.
Pacheco and Gray scored no touchdowns, meaning both types of touchdown bets on those players lost.
Player | First TD bet | Anytime TD bet |
|---|---|---|
Christian McCaffrey | Win | Win |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | Loss | Win |
Jauan Jennings | Loss | Win |
Mecole Hardman | Loss | Win |
Isiah Pacheco | Loss | Loss |
Noah Gray | Loss | Loss |
Anytime-touchdown bets generally offer lower payouts because the selected player has more opportunities to score.
First-touchdown wagers carry greater uncertainty but typically provide longer odds.
Our NFL player props page includes both first-touchdown and anytime-touchdown markets for current games.
A first-touchdown scorer wager requires bettors to select the player who scores the game's first touchdown.
The touchdown can come on a rushing play, reception, kickoff return, punt return, interception return, or fumble return, subject to the sportsbook's market rules.
Field goals and safeties do not count as touchdowns.
If the first score of a game is a field goal, the first-touchdown market remains unsettled until a touchdown occurs.
Yes.
A quarterback can win by scoring a rushing touchdown or by recovering or returning a ball for a touchdown in a qualifying situation.
A quarterback throwing the first touchdown pass does not win the scorer market merely for throwing it.
In Super Bowl LVIII, Jennings threw the first touchdown pass, but McCaffrey was credited with the score.
Some sportsbooks offer a team defense/special teams selection.
This can cover certain defensive or special teams touchdowns, depending on the market's settlement rules.
The original DraftKings table included 49ers D/ST at +2500 and Chiefs D/ST at +3000.
Neither selection won in Super Bowl LVIII.
Some markets include a "No TD Scorer" option.
The original Super Bowl LVIII odds listed that selection at +16000.
If a game finishes without a touchdown, the outcome depends on the sportsbook's posted market rules and available selections.
Bettors should review those rules before placing a wager.
The original ATS.io article included a historical table of first-touchdown scorers dating back to Super Bowl I.
That history shows how varied the market can be.
Running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, and defensive players have all scored the opening touchdown in a Super Bowl.
Super Bowl | First TD scorer | Team |
|---|---|---|
LVIII (2024) | Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers |
LVII (2023) | Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles |
LVI (2022) | Odell Beckham Jr. | Los Angeles Rams |
LV (2021) | Rob Gronkowski | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
LIV (2020) | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs |
LIII (2019) | Sony Michel | New England Patriots |
LII (2018) | Alshon Jeffery | Philadelphia Eagles |
LI (2017) | Devonta Freeman | Atlanta Falcons |
50 (2016) | Malik Jackson | Denver Broncos |
XLIX (2015) | Brandon LaFell | New England Patriots |
XLVIII (2014) | Marshawn Lynch | Seattle Seahawks |
XLVII (2013) | Anquan Boldin | Baltimore Ravens |
XLVI (2012) | Victor Cruz | New York Giants |
XLV (2011) | Jordy Nelson | Green Bay Packers |
XLIV (2010) | Pierre Garçon | Indianapolis Colts |
XLIII (2009) | Gary Russell | Pittsburgh Steelers |
XLII (2008) | Lawrence Maroney | New England Patriots |
XLI (2007) | Devin Hester | Chicago Bears |
XL (2006) | Ben Roethlisberger | Pittsburgh Steelers |
XXXIX (2005) | L.J. Smith | Philadelphia Eagles |
XXXVIII (2004) | Deion Branch | New England Patriots |
XXXVII (2003) | Mike Alstott | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
XXXVI (2002) | Ty Law | New England Patriots |
XXXV (2001) | Brandon Stokley | Baltimore Ravens |
XXXIV (2000) | Torry Holt | St. Louis Rams |
XXXIII (1999) | Howard Griffith | Denver Broncos |
XXXII (1998) | Antonio Freeman | Green Bay Packers |
XXXI (1997) | Andre Rison | Green Bay Packers |
Super Bowl | First TD scorer | Team |
|---|---|---|
XXX (1996) | Jay Novacek | Dallas Cowboys |
XXIX (1995) | Jerry Rice | San Francisco 49ers |
XXVIII (1994) | Thurman Thomas | Buffalo Bills |
XXVII (1993) | Thurman Thomas | Buffalo Bills |
XXVI (1992) | Earnest Byner | Washington |
XXV (1991) | Don Smith | Buffalo Bills |
XXIV (1990) | Jerry Rice | San Francisco 49ers |
XXIII (1989) | Stanford Jennings | Cincinnati Bengals |
XXII (1988) | Ricky Nattiel | Denver Broncos |
XXI (1987) | Zeke Mowatt | New York Giants |
XX (1986) | Matt Suhey | Chicago Bears |
XIX (1985) | Carl Monroe | San Francisco 49ers |
XVIII (1984) | Derrick Jensen | Los Angeles Raiders |
XVII (1983) | Jimmy Cefalo | Miami Dolphins |
XVI (1982) | Joe Montana | San Francisco 49ers |
XV (1981) | Cliff Branch | Oakland Raiders |
XIV (1980) | Cullen Bryant | Los Angeles Rams |
XIII (1979) | John Stallworth | Pittsburgh Steelers |
XII (1978) | Tony Dorsett | Dallas Cowboys |
XI (1977) | Dave Casper | Oakland Raiders |
X (1976) | Drew Pearson | Dallas Cowboys |
IX (1975) | Franco Harris | Pittsburgh Steelers |
VIII (1974) | Larry Csonka | Miami Dolphins |
VII (1973) | Howard Twilley | Miami Dolphins |
VI (1972) | Lance Alworth | Dallas Cowboys |
V (1971) | John Mackey | Baltimore Colts |
IV (1970) | Mike Garrett | Kansas City Chiefs |
III (1969) | Matt Snell | New York Jets |
II (1968) | Boyd Dowler | Green Bay Packers |
I (1967) | Max McGee | Green Bay Packers |
Historical table based on the original ATS.io article, with McCaffrey added for Super Bowl LVIII. The original historical entries should be independently checked against official game scoring records before publication.
The historical list offers useful context, although past results alone cannot identify the next winner.
Running backs can score on traditional goal-line carries, longer rushing plays, and receptions.
McCaffrey's 2024 touchdown demonstrated the value of that versatility.
His touchdown came through the passing game, despite his reputation as one of the NFL's most dangerous runners.
Several historical winners were wide receivers, including Beckham, Jeffery, Boldin, Cruz, and Rice.
Receivers with strong red-zone usage can be competitive selections, particularly in offenses that favor passing near the goal line.
However, touchdown distribution can be difficult to predict when multiple receivers share targets.
Hurts, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, and Montana all appear in the historical list because of rushing touchdowns.
Mobile quarterbacks can offer additional scoring possibilities that traditional pocket passers may lack.
Malik Jackson's touchdown in Super Bowl 50 and Ty Law's interception return in Super Bowl XXXVI demonstrate that the first touchdown doesn't always come from an offensive player.
These outcomes are uncommon, which explains why defense/special teams selections generally carry long odds.
Pacheco's recent touchdown production was an important part of the original prediction.
But his team needed to create the first scoring opportunity.
San Francisco reached the end zone first, and Kansas City's offensive struggles prevented Pacheco from capitalizing on his usual role.
McCaffrey could score on a run or a reception.
That gave him more routes to a touchdown than players whose opportunities were concentrated in one area.
His 21-yard reception from Jennings illustrated how an offense can create scoring opportunities outside conventional play designs.
Gray's +4000 price offered a large potential payout.
However, the odds needed to be compared with his actual probability of scoring first.
A low-volume player may appear attractive at a long price without having a sufficiently strong chance to justify the wager.
Pacheco's three-game postseason touchdown streak made him an appealing anytime-touchdown candidate.
It didn't necessarily make him the strongest first-touchdown selection.
The latter market depends heavily on which team scores first and which player finishes that particular possession.
McCaffrey was the shortest-priced player at +350.
He won despite the availability of numerous longer-priced alternatives.
A higher payout isn't automatically preferable if the corresponding probability is too low.
For current game predictions, see the ATS.io NFL betting picks.
Christian McCaffrey scored the first touchdown on a 21-yard reception from Jauan Jennings in the second quarter.
The original ATS.io article listed McCaffrey at +350 through DraftKings Sportsbook.
Isiah Pacheco at +600 was the primary prediction, with Noah Gray at +4000 identified as a longer-priced alternative.
No. Pacheco finished without a touchdown.
No. Gray caught two passes for 22 yards but did not score.
Jauan Jennings threw a 21-yard touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey on a trick play.
The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime.
A $100 winning wager at +350 returned $450, including $350 in profit.
No. The player who catches the touchdown pass is the scorer. The passer receives passing statistics but does not win the first-touchdown scorer market.
Standard first-touchdown markets generally include overtime, subject to the sportsbook's posted rules.
First-touchdown bets require the selected player to score the game's opening touchdown. Anytime-touchdown bets win if the player scores at any point during the game under the applicable market rules.
Yes. Defensive touchdowns can qualify, depending on the sportsbook's available selections and settlement rules.
The original ATS.io prediction backed Isiah Pacheco at +600, based on his consistent postseason scoring and Kansas City's willingness to give him the ball near the goal line.
That reasoning had merit, but the wager lost.
Pacheco finished without a touchdown, while Christian McCaffrey scored first on a 21-yard trick-play reception.
McCaffrey's +350 price was the winning selection from the original DraftKings market.
Kansas City eventually won the Super Bowl, but the first-touchdown outcome belonged to San Francisco.
→ Our Take: Pacheco's goal-line usage made him a reasonable candidate, but the original prediction placed too much weight on recent touchdown production without adequately accounting for the chance of San Francisco scoring first. McCaffrey offered more ways to reach the end zone, and his winning touchdown demonstrated exactly why he entered as the favorite. Super Bowl LVIII is a useful reminder that first-touchdown bets demand more than identifying a likely scorer. The order of scoring opportunities is just as important.
Updated October 26, 2026
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