Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 9 Pick 11/6/22
Updated October 26, 2026
Updated October 26, 2026
The Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs entered Week 9 of the 2022 NFL season with identical 5-2 records. Kansas City was coming off its bye week, while Tennessee had won five consecutive games behind a powerful rushing attack led by Derrick Henry.
The original ATS.io prediction backed Kansas City -12.5, expecting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense to overwhelm a Tennessee team struggling to generate passing yards.
The matchup played out very differently.
Kansas City needed a late fourth-quarter comeback and overtime to escape with a 20-17 victory at Arrowhead Stadium on November 6, 2022. Tennessee led by eight points late in regulation, and rookie quarterback Malik Willis nearly guided the Titans to a major upset.
The Chiefs won the game but failed to cover the 12.5-point spread.
This historical betting retrospective preserves the original prediction, reviews the pregame analysis, and explains why Tennessee proved much more competitive than expected.
Category | Details |
|---|---|
Matchup | Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs |
Week | NFL Week 9, 2022 |
Date | Sunday, November 6, 2022 |
Kickoff | 8:20 PM ET |
Stadium | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium |
Location | Kansas City, Missouri |
TV | NBC, Sunday Night Football |
Titans record entering game | 5-2 |
Chiefs record entering game | 5-2 |
Original ATS.io pick | Chiefs -12.5 |
Historical point spread | Kansas City -12.5 |
Historical total | 45.5 points |
Final score | Chiefs 20, Titans 17 (OT) |
Spread winner | Tennessee +12.5 |
Total winner | Under 45.5 |
Original ATS.io pick result | Loss |
The spread and total are historical market references, not currently available betting lines.
The Chiefs entered as substantial favorites despite both teams having the same record.
Kansas City's explosive passing offense was the primary reason for that difference.
Tennessee relied heavily on Henry and entered the matchup with one of the league's least productive passing attacks.
The expectation was that Kansas City would score enough points to force the Titans into an uncomfortable game script.
Instead, Tennessee controlled the middle portion of the contest and nearly won outright.
For current matchups and predictions, visit the ATS.io NFL betting picks.
THE PICK: CHIEFS -12.5
The original ATS.io selection favored Kansas City to win by at least 13 points.
Three main factors supported the prediction: Kansas City's run defense, Tennessee's limited passing offense, and the Chiefs' recent performances as heavy favorites.
Entering the game, Kansas City ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, surrendering approximately 92 yards per contest.
That appeared particularly important against Tennessee.
The Titans' offense revolved around Derrick Henry, who was coming off a dominant performance against Houston.
Kansas City's defensive objective was straightforward: limit Henry's early-down production and force Tennessee to throw.
The original analysis expected the Chiefs to make the Titans' offense one-dimensional.
What actually happened: Henry rushed for 115 yards and two touchdowns on just 17 carries.
He averaged 6.8 yards per attempt and delivered the explosive runs Tennessee needed to establish a lead.
Kansas City eventually limited the Titans' offense in the second half, but Henry had already helped create a significant scoring advantage.
The original prediction underestimated how much damage Tennessee could do on the ground despite its limited passing attack.
The original article noted that Kansas City had been favored by double digits four times dating back to the previous season.
The Chiefs had won all four games by an average of 18 points.
That trend suggested Kansas City could produce another comfortable victory against an opponent with an obvious offensive weakness.
However, historical results against the spread are not guarantees of future performance.
The opponent's defensive strengths, injuries, and specific matchup can matter more than a small sample of previous games.
What actually happened: Kansas City won by three points.
The Chiefs needed overtime to secure the victory and finished 9.5 points short of covering the original -12.5 spread.
The original preview highlighted Tennessee's defensive struggles entering Week 9.
The Titans were allowing approximately 6.0 yards per play, tied for one of the league's worst marks through the first eight weeks.
That appeared problematic against Mahomes and a Kansas City offense with an extra week to prepare.
The Chiefs had the personnel to attack Tennessee through the air, with Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster among Mahomes' primary receiving targets.
What actually happened: Mahomes threw for 446 yards, but Kansas City scored only 20 points despite running 91 offensive plays.
Tennessee's defense repeatedly made critical stops, particularly in the red zone and on key passing downs.
Mahomes ultimately rescued the Chiefs with his legs rather than producing the expected comfortable passing-led victory.
Tennessee entered Week 9 riding a five-game winning streak.
The Titans had recovered from an 0-2 start and were leading the AFC South.
Their offensive identity was built around Henry, a physical running game, and an emphasis on controlling possession.
Henry had rushed for 219 yards and two touchdowns against the Houston Texans in Week 8.
That performance came with rookie quarterback Malik Willis starting in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill.
Tennessee attempted only ten passes against Houston, making its offensive approach unusually predictable.
But predictable didn't necessarily mean ineffective.
Henry's size, power, and ability to generate explosive runs made him dangerous even when defenses knew the Titans intended to run.
Against Kansas City, Tennessee needed Henry to produce enough yardage to shorten the game and limit Mahomes' possessions.
He delivered another outstanding performance.
When the original article was published on November 1, Tannehill's availability remained uncertain.
The preview considered how Tennessee might perform with either Tannehill or Willis at quarterback.
Willis ultimately started the game.
The rookie's passing limitations were a significant concern, particularly against a Chiefs offense capable of scoring quickly.
Tennessee's game plan needed to protect Willis from difficult passing situations and avoid falling behind by multiple scores.
That approach worked for much of the contest.
The Titans also needed their defense to contain Mahomes.
Kansas City could attack with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and several other receiving options.
The original prediction expected Tennessee's defensive weaknesses to create favorable opportunities for the Chiefs.
Instead, the Titans repeatedly disrupted Kansas City's drives.
Although Mahomes accumulated substantial yardage, Tennessee made him work for almost every point.
Kansas City entered the matchup at 5-2 following its Week 8 bye.
The Chiefs had scored 44 points against San Francisco in their previous game, reinforcing their status as one of the AFC's strongest teams.
Mahomes was enjoying another outstanding season, while Andy Reid's offense remained dangerous despite the offseason departure of Tyreek Hill.
Mahomes entered the game as the primary reason Kansas City was favored by nearly two touchdowns.
His ability to create explosive plays, extend possessions, and distribute the ball across multiple receivers made the Chiefs difficult to defend.
Kelce remained his most dependable target.
Smith-Schuster and Hardman provided additional receiving threats.
Against a Tennessee defense that had struggled in several statistical categories, Kansas City appeared capable of producing a high-scoring performance.
The Chiefs' defensive priority was containing Tennessee's running game.
If Kansas City could force Willis into obvious passing situations, its pass rush would have opportunities to attack a rookie quarterback.
That was the central argument behind the original -12.5 prediction.
However, Tennessee's early rushing success prevented the Chiefs from establishing the expected control.
Henry's two second-quarter touchdowns changed the game's complexion.
Kansas City had an extra week to prepare following its bye.
Reid's teams had historically performed well after extended breaks.
The additional preparation time was another factor favoring Kansas City.
But Tennessee's defensive execution prevented the Chiefs from turning that preparation advantage into a decisive early lead.
The game began with Kansas City controlling possession.
The Chiefs opened with a 15-play, 69-yard drive that consumed more than eight minutes.
However, the drive ended with a Harrison Butker field goal rather than a touchdown.
Kansas City extended its lead to 9-0 early in the second quarter when Mahomes connected with Hardman for a touchdown.
The extra-point attempt failed.
Tennessee then changed the game through Henry.
He scored twice in the second quarter, giving the Titans a 14-9 halftime lead.
A Randy Bullock field goal in the third quarter extended Tennessee's advantage to 17-9.
The Chiefs were suddenly facing an eight-point deficit against a defense that had made their offense work throughout the night.
Kansas City remained behind 17-9 deep into the fourth quarter.
Mahomes then led a 93-yard touchdown drive.
He finished the possession with a 14-yard touchdown run and followed it with a successful two-point conversion run.
The score was tied 17-17 with just under three minutes remaining.
Neither team scored again in regulation.
Kansas City received the opening possession of overtime.
Mahomes moved the Chiefs into field-goal range with another extended drive.
Butker converted a 28-yard field goal to give Kansas City a 20-17 lead.
Tennessee then failed to answer, and the Chiefs secured the victory.
The comeback improved Kansas City's record to 6-2.
Tennessee fell to 5-3 despite one of its strongest defensive performances of the season.
Quarter | Team | Scoring play | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Chiefs | Harrison Butker 23-yard FG | KC 3-0 |
Q2 | Chiefs | Mecole Hardman 7-yard TD reception; missed XP | KC 9-0 |
Q2 | Titans | Derrick Henry 4-yard TD run | KC 9-7 |
Q2 | Titans | Derrick Henry 1-yard TD run | TEN 14-9 |
Q3 | Titans | Randy Bullock 44-yard FG | TEN 17-9 |
Q4 | Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes 14-yard TD run and two-point conversion | 17-17 |
OT | Chiefs | Harrison Butker 28-yard FG | KC 20-17 |
Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tennessee Titans | 0 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 20 |
The game produced only 37 total points, well below the historical total of 45.5.
Statistic | Malik Willis | Patrick Mahomes |
|---|---|---|
Completions | 5 | 43 |
Attempts | 16 | 68 |
Passing yards | 80 | 446 |
Passing TDs | 0 | 1 |
Interceptions | 0 | 1 |
Rushing yards | 40 | 63 |
Rushing TDs | 0 | 1 |
The statistical difference between the quarterbacks was enormous.
Mahomes threw for 366 more yards than Willis and attempted 52 more passes.
But those numbers didn't produce a comfortable Kansas City victory.
Tennessee's defense forced the Chiefs to run 91 plays and prevented many of those possessions from becoming touchdowns.
Willis, meanwhile, contributed enough as a runner to support Henry and Tennessee's rushing attack.
Henry finished with:
His performance was particularly significant because Kansas City entered with one of the league's strongest rushing defenses.
Henry's two touchdowns gave Tennessee the lead, and his explosive rushing helped compensate for the Titans' minimal passing production.
Player | Receptions | Receiving yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
Travis Kelce | 10 | 106 | 0 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | 10 | 88 | 0 |
Mecole Hardman | 6 | 79 | 1 |
Noah Gray | 3 | 45 | 0 |
Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 40 | 0 |
Kelce led the Chiefs in receiving yards, while Hardman caught their only passing touchdown.
Kansas City's passing offense generated yardage, but Tennessee successfully limited the number of scoring plays.
Statistic | Tennessee | Kansas City |
|---|---|---|
Total offensive yards | 229 | 499 |
Net passing yards | 57 | 422 |
Rushing yards | 172 | 77 |
Offensive plays | 48 | 91 |
Yards per play | 4.8 | 5.5 |
Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
Time of possession | 26:23 | 41:28 |
Kansas City outgained Tennessee by 270 yards and ran 43 more offensive plays.
That statistical dominance makes the narrow final margin particularly striking.
The Titans produced just 57 net passing yards but nearly won.
Kansas City's inability to turn its large yardage advantage into more touchdowns was the decisive reason the Chiefs failed to cover.
No. Kansas City won 20-17 but failed to cover the -12.5 spread.
The Chiefs needed to win by at least 13 points for the original ATS.io selection to succeed.
They won by only three.
Tennessee +12.5 was therefore the winning spread selection.
Market | Original selection or line | Result |
|---|---|---|
ATS.io spread pick | Chiefs -12.5 | Loss |
Opposite spread | Titans +12.5 | Win |
Chiefs moneyline | Kansas City to win | Win |
Titans moneyline | Tennessee to win | Loss |
Game total | 45.5 | Under won |
Actual total | 37 points | 8.5 below line |
The original pick lost by 9.5 points relative to the spread.
For example, a hypothetical $110 bet on Chiefs -12.5 at standard -110 odds would have lost the full $110 stake.
A $110 bet on Titans +12.5 at -110 would have returned $210, including $100 in profit.
The -110 price is illustrative; the original article supplied the spread but did not specify the wager's odds.
For more current point-spread analysis, see ATS.io's NFL picks.
The pregame reasoning identified real weaknesses in Tennessee's offense.
The Titans struggled to pass the ball, and Willis was making only his second NFL start.
Kansas City also had the more productive offense and a favorable matchup on paper.
However, several developments prevented the expected blowout.
The original prediction focused heavily on the Titans' poor yards-per-play numbers entering the game.
But Tennessee delivered an outstanding defensive performance.
The Titans pressured Mahomes, contested passes, and forced Kansas City to sustain long drives.
Despite 499 total yards, the Chiefs scored only two touchdowns.
The Titans also intercepted Mahomes once.
Their defensive execution was much stronger than the season averages suggested.
The Chiefs' strong rushing-defense ranking was a major argument behind the original pick.
Henry nevertheless gained 115 yards and scored twice.
His success prevented Tennessee from becoming completely dependent on Willis.
Even though the Titans finished with only 57 net passing yards, their rushing attack generated enough offense to keep the game close.
Mahomes threw for 446 yards, but the Chiefs scored just 20 points in more than four quarters.
The opening possession was a good example.
Kansas City moved 69 yards but settled for a field goal.
Similar inefficiency continued throughout the game.
The Chiefs moved the ball consistently without producing the touchdown total expected from such a heavily favored team.
A double-digit favorite typically benefits when it scores early and forces the underdog to abandon its preferred offensive approach.
That didn't happen.
Tennessee recovered from an early 9-0 deficit and led for much of the second half.
The Titans were able to continue emphasizing their running game.
Kansas City had to chase the score rather than protect a large lead.
A -12.5 line requires a dominant performance.
Even after Mahomes forced overtime and the Chiefs secured the victory, the margin was nowhere near sufficient.
The original prediction correctly identified Kansas City as the stronger team, but it overestimated the likelihood of a comfortable win.
That distinction is central to point-spread betting.
The Week 9 game also looks different when viewed in the context of the full 2022 season.
Kansas City finished the regular season 14-3 and earned the AFC's No. 1 seed.
The Chiefs defeated Jacksonville and Cincinnati in the playoffs before facing Philadelphia in Super Bowl LVII.
Kansas City won the championship 38-35.
Mahomes earned NFL MVP honors for the regular season and Super Bowl MVP honors.
The narrow victory over Tennessee became one of several examples of the Chiefs finding ways to win difficult games during their championship season.
Tennessee's season took a different direction.
The Titans were 7-3 after Week 11 but lost their final seven games.
They finished 7-10 and missed the playoffs.
Quarterback injuries, offensive limitations, and inconsistent performances contributed to their late-season collapse.
Their competitive performance against Kansas City was one of the stronger efforts of the season, even though it ended in defeat.
Kansas City was the stronger team and ultimately won.
But the -12.5 spread demanded a substantially more convincing result.
Bettors evaluating a large favorite need to consider the likelihood of a comfortable margin, not simply which team is more likely to win.
The Chiefs generated nearly 500 yards but scored only 20 points.
Red-zone execution, turnovers, penalties, and third-down performance can make the difference between a high-scoring game and a frustrating offensive night.
Kansas City entered with strong rushing-defense numbers.
Henry still delivered 115 yards and two touchdowns.
Tennessee's defense also performed considerably better than its overall season averages.
Rankings provide useful context, but they don't fully describe how a particular matchup will unfold.
Mahomes dominated the passing statistics.
Willis completed only five passes.
Yet Tennessee nearly won.
The Titans compensated with effective rushing, strong defense, and a favorable game script.
The original -12.5 selection offered little protection against a competitive game.
Kansas City needed to win by nearly two touchdowns.
Even with a substantial talent advantage, that margin was difficult to achieve against a physical Tennessee team capable of controlling possession and limiting scoring.
For additional NFL betting analysis and upcoming games, visit the ATS.io NFL matchup center.
The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Tennessee Titans 20-17 in overtime.
No. Kansas City was favored by 12.5 points and won by only three.
The original November 1, 2022 article recommended Chiefs -12.5.
No. Tennessee +12.5 covered the spread.
The historical game total was 45.5 points. The teams combined for 37, so the under won.
Rookie Malik Willis started in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill.
Mahomes completed 43 of 68 passes for 446 yards, one passing touchdown, and one interception.
Henry rushed for 115 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries.
Harrison Butker kicked a 28-yard field goal in overtime to give Kansas City a 20-17 lead.
Mahomes scored on a 14-yard run late in the fourth quarter and added the two-point conversion to tie the game 17-17.
The matchup took place at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
Yes. The Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII, defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35.
The original ATS.io prediction backed Kansas City -12.5, expecting the Chiefs' offense to take advantage of Tennessee's limited passing game and vulnerable defensive statistics.
Kansas City won, but the expected blowout never materialized.
Henry rushed for 115 yards and two touchdowns, Tennessee's defense contained the Chiefs' scoring opportunities, and Mahomes needed a late touchdown and two-point conversion to force overtime.
Butker eventually delivered the winning field goal, securing a 20-17 Chiefs victory.
Original ATS.io pick: Chiefs -12.5 — Loss.
→ Our Take: The original analysis correctly identified Kansas City's overall talent advantage but underestimated Tennessee's ability to control the game with Henry and a physical defensive performance. The Chiefs' 499 offensive yards suggested dominance, yet their inability to finish drives kept the Titans competitive. Kansas City was the right straight-up winner, but -12.5 was too ambitious for a matchup that ultimately required overtime. It's a useful example of why picking the better team and identifying the better point-spread wager are two different decisions.
Updated October 26, 2026
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